2014

Map Saudi Arabia

Driving Down Oil Prices Just to Hurt Russia is “Simplistic”

In the global chess game of energy politics every move affects more than a single opponent and the effects of low oil prices are not equally distributed. Some countries will be hurt by low prices more than others. Who will lower oil prices hurt more, Russia, Syria, Iran, Venezuela… the U.S. ? In today’s article, Andrew Topf of Oilprice.com looks at some of the background and cause and effect of lower energy prices.

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Russian Oil

Why Russia is Unfazed by Falling Oil Prices

In recent posts we’ve told you about Russia Eying Crimea’s Oil and Gas Reserves and about the Total War over the Petrodollar and More on the PetroDollar and we’ve considered why the recent OPEC meeting maintained production in spite of declining prices rather than cutting production to keep prices up as they’ve done in the past. There has been some speculation that falling oil prices would hurt Russia (and a variety of other energy producers like U.S. natural producers, wild-catters, small production companies, etc.).

But in today’s article Marin Katusa takes a look at the flip side of falling oil prices and Russia’s resilience. ~Tim McMahon, editor.

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Falling Oil Prices

Oil Price Tumbles After OPEC Releases 2015 Forecast

Oil prices are falling and that is good for consumers as their daily heating and transportation costs fall. It also benefits producers as a small company could easily save $100,000 a year in energy costs. If you multiply that by the number of businesses in the country you can see the staggering effect lower energy prices can have on the economy. But not everyone is happy about falling energy prices. Many conventional energy and alternative energy producers require oil prices to be above $70/ barrel in order for their business models to remain in the black. And all of the OPEC countries except two require higher oil prices in order for them to balance their countries budgets. So although oil prices are low now it may not last.

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Could The Fed Trigger A Deflationary Slide In Stocks?

Most economists and stock market participants believe that FED policy can exhibit a tremendous amount of power over the movement of the markets and market participants perception of the future of that policy can affect the market in the short run. The major exception is Robert Prechter who believes that “monetary policy doesn’t have a reliable effect on the stock market.” He recommends that you Don’t Get Ruined by This Popular Investment Myth. But in today’s post Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management looks at whether the FED could trigger a slide in the stock market. ~Tim McMahon, editor.

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Breakfast with a Lord of War

In late 2010, I was invited to a private breakfast meeting with an individual near the apex of the US military’s strategic planning pyramid. Specifically, the individual we were to breakfast with sits at the side of the long-serving head of the department in the Pentagon responsible for identifying and assessing potential threats to national security and devising long-term strategies to counter those threats.

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How “Paper Gold” Affects the Price of the Metal

Oddities in the gold market have been alleged for quite some time, but few know where to start looking, and even fewer have the patience to dig out the meaningful bits from the mountain of market data available. In today’s article Casey Research Chief Economist Bud Conrad turns his keen eye to the Gold sector in order to discover how the big banks are using the futures market to manipulate the price of gold.

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Bank of Japan (BOJ)

On Halloween, the Bank of Japan Did Something Scary

In today’s post Grant Williams looks at the recent actions of the Bank of Japan and their attempt to break free of the deflationary spiral they have been on for more than 20 years. Back in April of 2013 Abenomics was born and Japan began boosting their stock market while trashing the Yen. Now they have “doubled-down” and are planning a TARP style bailout to the tune of about $720 billion. This is only slightly less than TARP’s $787 billion except that the Japanese economy is much smaller than the U.S. economy. So it is really equivalent to the U.S. blowing about $3 Trillion a year for the foreseeable future! And Japan’s debt to GDP is already about 250% compared to the U.S.’s 110%, so they don’t have any wiggle room left.

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A GREAT Model to Understand Gold’s Price Swings

Are Gold’s price swings as truly unpredictable as Bernanke, Yellen and Greenspan would have you believe? Is gold really a Barbarous relic with no place in a modern portfolio? Or is gold a valid insurance policy against the Fed’s $4 trillion balance sheet which is just a “pile of tinder, but hasn’t been lit”? In today’s article we are going to look at a model that predicted the recent peak in gold and current drop.

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