Golden Oldies

There is an old saying, “Those who do not study the past are condemned to repeat it” and another that goes along with it which says, “History may not repeat itself but it does rhyme.”

Recently I came across some articles that we published quite a few years ago but I thought they were worth mentioning again in an effort to learn from the past. So here they are:

Retro-100224580The first article shows…  How Do You Decide How Much a Stock Is Really Worth? The article also covers, How Much is Cash Flow Worth? Combining Fundamental and Technical Analysis and Recognizing a Bottom. It is an excellent in-depth article by Chris Ciovacco on deciding when to buy and how much a stock is really worth.

The second post is for those who don’t like valuing individual stocks but would rather invest in a group of stocks. The ABCs of ETFs, Open-End Funds, Closed-end funds, Hedge funds, and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

How Does Oil Relate to Stock Market Crashes?

Back in 2008 just before the stock market began its historic crash, I wrote  “a sharp increase in oil prices on the magnitude of 50% to 100% annual increase has historically resulted in a sharp decline in the stock market price… it is quite logical that increased oil costs could result in a decline in the stock market.” See Is Oil Predicting a Stock Market Crash? and another article was written about the same time called The Real Solution to Higher Oil Prices.

The Historical P/E Ratio and Reality talk about “What is the Price Earnings Ratio?”  and what does it mean to you when trying to value a stock correctly?

The Government Needs to Realize Banks Aren’t Santa

Banks aren’t Santa they are in business to make money but back in the years prior to 2007 they made a lot of risky loans, not only on houses but to businesses as well. When they withdrew this easy credit businesses began a domino effect as each one crashed it brought more and more other businesses down with it. In this article Andrew Gordon looks at how a falling credit rating can be a death sentence to a business. Were bankers the “rat” behind the Mortgage bubble or was there really another cause?  In this article David Galland looks at the real cause of the crash and at the reason behind the bank’s apparent switch from Santa to Scrooge.

Speaking of sudden switches… another Golden Oldie from May of 2003 is Why Do Trends Change Suddenly- A book review about Robert Prechter’s book Socioeconomics- The Science of History and Social Prediction.”

A retro look at markets in 2009 can show us what market psychology near the bottom looks like and how to evaluate buying opportunities. We can also take a look at the sub-prime Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) situation in 2009.

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