Low Probability Market Will Crash

In the following article Chris Ciovacco looks at a variety of indicators to determine the probability that the market will take a dive in the near future. He'll look at New Highs vs. New Lows, and compare market vulnerability of the 2011 market … [Read more...]

Trump Rally: False Dawn Or New Bullish Trend?

Market’s Message Prior To The Election While there is no question the stock market’s short-term profile was showing signs of strain before voters headed to the polls, an analysis performed six trading days before the election noted the stock … [Read more...]

Brexit: Will They Stay Or Will They Go?

Polls Lean Go, Markets Lean Stay A referendum is being held on Thursday, June 23, to decide whether Britain should leave or remain in the European Union (EU). Polls currently indicate a bias for the leave scenario. However, Great Britain’s wagering … [Read more...]

Bear Markets And Economic Contractions: 2001/2008 vs. 2015

Economic Basis For Large Bear Market Declines By Chris Ciovacco As we noted in a recent “recession odds” article, bear markets typically are caused by one of two things: a recession or tight monetary conditions. For example, the 2000-2002 bear … [Read more...]

Reasons To Remain Open To Bullish Outcomes For Stocks

When investor sentiment reaches extreme levels, it can be a contrary indicator for the stock market. For example, the highest bullish reading in the history of the American Association Of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey was 75% bulls … [Read more...]

Could The Fed Trigger A Deflationary Slide In Stocks?

Most economists and stock market participants believe that FED policy can exhibit a tremendous amount of power over the movement of the markets and market participants perception of the future of that policy can affect the market in the short run. … [Read more...]

QE Ending Or Just Getting Started?

ECB To Step Up As Fed Steps Back? While the Federal Reserve has laid out specific plans to end their quantitative easing (QE) program, a new season of QE may be getting ready to kick-off across the pond. From Reuters: The euro fell broadly on … [Read more...]

No 2008 Stock Plunge In the Cards

Lately we have been hearing rumblings in the media that the market is getting "too frothy" and looking like a "bubble" and the media is wondering if we are nearing 2008 proportions. Usually as long as we hear talk like that the market is safe because … [Read more...]

Currency Wars: Money Printing- Wind at Stock Market’s Back

While common sense tells us “printing our way to prosperity” seems like an unlikely longer-term outcome, in the short run it can help push stock prices higher.  From Bloomberg: The global currency wars are heating up again as central banks embark … [Read more...]

With Summers Out: Which Way for Stocks?

I've never been a fan of Larry Summers. Perhaps he was too smart for his own good. After all, he was responsible for driving Jack Meyer out of managing the Harvard endowment fund. Meyer took the Harvard Endowment from $4.8 billion to $25.9 billion in … [Read more...]