Economic Trends

Long-term trends grow from short term trends. We attampt to determine the short term trends and where they are pointing.

NYSE Daily 1-23-2023

Has the Stock Market Turned Positive?

It has been a long time since there has been any positive news for the stock market. In our January 12th, 2023, NYSE ROC report, we changed from a “Sell Signal” to a “Hold Signal” because of some positive indications in the market. Although the ROC has not yet switched to a “Buy”, we noticed a few positive indicators that could indicate either a bottom has been set or that we are in for a short-term rally. Some may call this “green shoots” in the market.

Has the Stock Market Turned Positive? Read More »

dollar-hegemony

Is the U.S. Dollar Hegemony Ending?

The U.S. has been the currency of foreign exchange ever since the Bretton Woods agreement of 1944. It did experience a crisis of confidence in the 1970s, but the Nixon / Kissinger deal with Saudi Arabia to create the PetroDollar whereby all oil sales had to be completed in U.S. Dollars (in exchange for military support) recemented the dollar’s prominence for another half-century. But now things are changing. In today’s article, Patrick Barron looks at the current state of Dollar hegemony.

Is the U.S. Dollar Hegemony Ending? Read More »

M3 Components

Latest Recession Alarm

There’s a new Recession Alarm! Money Supply Growth can have a significant influence on the state of the economy. When the FED is pumping, and the money supply is growing, Woo Hoo, it’s happy days, but when the flow dries up, the economy goes into a tailspin. As we have repeatedly implied, via the FED’s massive Quantitative Easing, the money supply has grown exponentially over the last decade.

But today, let’s look at the M3 money supply itself. The M3 money supply is a broad measure of money, including M2 plus much more. It is an indirectly derived measure of the supply of money which includes currency in circulation, checking and savings deposits, certificates of deposit, term deposits, call/term borrowings from ‘non-depository’ corporations by the banking system, and ‘Other’ deposits with the central bank.

Latest Recession Alarm Read More »

NYSE Composite Chart

Half-Way to the Stock Market’s Worst Case Scenario

On the NYSE weekly chart. we can see that this year so far, the index has fallen from the peak at the long-term resistance line down to the mid-line (as we said it would). So as the headline suggests, we are now halfway to the worst-case scenario, i.e., all the way down to the long-term support line. Whether it gets that bad or not remains to be seen.

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NFTs Round trip to nowhere

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): Another Financial “Fumble”

Over the years, we’ve discussed various iterations of the “blockchain” and some of the possibilities it has for finance, industry, and even gaming. We looked at What are NFTs and Why are They Going Crazy?, How Blockchain’s Unique Innovations Can Prevent Money Remittance Scams, How Is Technology Affecting Global Trading Markets, and Metaverse vs. Multiverse- What are They? And Where are They Leading? Over at InflationData, we covered Cryptocurrencies and Inflation, and Can Crypto Solve Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Problem?, which we followed up with How has Venezuela’s Bitcoin experiment Fared? So we’ve looked at Crypto quite a bit. Today we are going to take another look at NFTs, which looked a lot like a crazy bubble right from the start.

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Student loans

Will Loan Forgiveness Raise College Costs?

For years we’ve been tracking college costs and adjusting them for inflation. See Education and Tuition Inflation for more information. During that time, I’ve repeatedly said that one of the primary drivers of increased education costs was the ease of getting a loan. Unfortunately, the vast majority of college freshmen see a loan as “free money” and don’t seem to understand the difference between a “Loan” and a “Grant”. And apparently, this past week, many college loans effectively became grants.

Looking at it from a different perspective, we might wonder what lessons former college students will learn from this largess. Will they determine that debt is good? Or perhaps, they will surmise that no matter how stupid their decisions are, the government will always bail them out. Today’s article comes from the halls of Academia but doesn’t praise the government’s philanthropy as you might expect. ~Tim McMahon, editor

Biden’s College Loan Forgiveness Program Will Raise College Costs
When I interviewed for a teaching job at private college in Alabama more than twenty years ago, the recently elected governor had won partly on a platform in which the state would install a lottery system that would give students a $3,000 grant for college. As the provost and I discussed the prospects of this new program, he smiled and said, “We hope this lottery passes. Then we can raise tuition by $3,000.”

Will Loan Forgiveness Raise College Costs? Read More »

CPI

How Long Will This Recession Last?

The most important question for asset prices right now, from stocks to houses to Bitcoin, is whether we’re due for a recession. Last week we got confirmation that according to the traditional definition of a recession – 2 quarters of negative growth – we are already in a recession.
The response from this administration has been denial and word games rather than actually trying to stop the slide. At which point the betting shifts to whether it’ll be a shallow 1991-style recession or a big, 2008-style one, perhaps with a financial crisis to spice things up.

How Long Will This Recession Last? Read More »

US vs China

Is The U.S. A Powerful “Empire” In Decline?

Recently I’ve been giving a lot of thought to the idea of global “empires”. Back in the 1970s one of my teachers discussed the parallels between the U.S. and the Roman empire and those parallels are even more striking today. A simple search on the term, “Parallels Between the U.S. and the Roman Empire” will generate pages and pages of results on this topic from such esteemed writers as Doug Casey, Seeking Alpha and even Salon.

In the U.S. we tend to bristle at the idea that we are an “empire” but a recent YouTube Video by Ray Dalio got me thinking about this subject once again. The characteristics of an “Empire” are fairly consistent and specific. Truth in History lists 36 characteristics of an empire. These include:

Being the “World’s Policeman”.
Meddling in the political affairs of foreign nations.
Original citizenry becomes rich, lazy, fat and demands “bread and circuses”.
Has an expanded immigration policy.
Accepts foreigners into its realm as unskilled laborers.
Ray Dalio’s video explains how the ascendency to Empire status occurs and he focuses on three recent “empires” including the Dutch, British, and the U.S. He calls this “the Big Cycle” and focuses primarily on the financial aspects of Empire.

Is The U.S. A Powerful “Empire” In Decline? Read More »

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