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The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments
A look back on 18 months of analysis and reports on the European Credit Crisis
In 1999, 11 European countries surrendered their currencies for the euro and a shared monetary authority. Barely a decade later, the once-celebrated EU is in the midst of a credit crisis and its currency is facing collapse.
Elliott Wave International’s analysts have been anticipating and tracking the credit contagion across the European nations for the past two years. EWI subscribers were first alerted to the still-developing European debt crisis back in December 2009.
The following is excerpted from a December 2010 report from The European Debt Crisis, a new report from EWI. This free report provides important analysis from February 2010 through today that helps you understand what the European economic crisis can mean for your investments. Plus, you’ll get a unique perspective on what’s ahead. Find out how to access this free report below.
The Credit Crisis Spreads — December 2010
The credit crisis is escalating as expected. Back in January 2010, when ratings agency Moody’s bestowed “investment grade” status on a widely followed index of sovereign bonds, The European Financial Forecast argued that a renewed Primary-degree decline would in fact aim the credit crisis directly at this critical new realm. Our case for the looming sovereign debt debacle rested primarily on two pieces of evidence: (1) Primary wave 3 (circled) had begun in Europe’s peripheral markets, and (2) premiums for credit-default swaps on European sovereigns (think of an insurance policy against a national default) were already signaling the next phase of the crisis by surpassing their 2008-09 price extremes. The February 2010 issue of EFF published a chart showing rising Greek, Spanish and Italian swaps and offered this description of how Europe’s credit crunch would escalate: “The theme during Primary wave 1 (circled) was default at the individual, corporate and quasi-government level. The theme for Primary wave 3 (circled) will be default at the sovereign level.”
Today, the credit crunch is clearly angling itself away from mere corporations and toward whole countries. On November 15, Bloomberg announced the escalation with this headline: Continue reading
“Your Work Helps Me in a Very Practical Way”
Prechter talks with Mind of Money Host Doug Lodmell
Robert Prechter offers a broad overview of the Wave Principle in this interview clip with The Mind of Money host, Douglass Lodmell. Continue reading
Investing In Real Estate Securities For High Yield
by Charles Petty
Investing in real estate requires investment of not only money but also time and effort. Real Estate investing requires that you buy a property, rehab, maintain it and then rent it out.
But if you want to enjoy the fruits of investing in real estate without all the hassle, then real estate securities is the place to look. Even if you have another business but yet wish to dip your fingers in real estate without investing your precious time, then you can choose from any of the following real estate securities. Continue reading
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Editor
Doug Casey: Glowing Prospects for Uranium
On September 22, 2011, Karen Roche and JT Long of The Energy Report interviewed renowned speculator and financial author Doug Casey on his views about uranium. Read here why Doug thinks despite the recent bad press, “yellowcake” has a bright future.
The Western world’s skittishness, skepticism and staunch opposition when in comes to nuclear energy won’t stand in the way of its production elsewhere in the world. It will be full steam ahead in China, India and other developing nations, says Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey, and the Western world is tiny in comparison. In fact, “I’d say uranium is a great place to be for at least the next generation,” he tells us in this Energy Report exclusive. With ever-advancing technology enabling economic recovery in places where it previously wasn’t possible, he’s also optimistic about natural gas and oil. Continue reading
What is an Enlightened Millionaire?
By Robert Allen
Best-selling Author of
The One Minute Millionaire and Nothing Down
An enlightened millionaire is a person who always strives to be the best they can be, who knows no boundaries, and knows that there can be abundance for all. They know that creativity is unlimited. That the application of creativity to everyday needs is the basis of providing value, which in turn creates wealth. They live in balance. Their life is a life devoted to living and sharing abundance through service that allows them to give their unique gifts–for the benefit of themselves, their families, their communities and the world.
The world is shifting. No longer will our society support the pursuit of money for money’s sake. We are entering a time when we recognize that none of us exists in isolation. We invite you to step into this new world with us.
“What is the opposite of abundance? It’s not scarcity. It’s greed. Greed is the belief that there is not enough for everyone, so you’d better grab yours now. What is the opposite of love? It’s not hate. It’s fear. Fear is the belief that someone or something can hurt you.”
“Ultimately, the product you sell is love—manifested and materialized.”
- Robert G. Allen
Crashing Markets, Credit Downgrades- What Comes Next?
Tragic news about the United States economic atmosphere has been inescapable throughout the country and world for quite some time now. With constant debate over raising the debt ceiling, shocking losses in the stock market, devastating unemployment rates, and a downgraded national credit rating, it’s no wonder the country’s economic health has been in question. After a series of blows to the U.S.’s economic wellbeing, things don’t seem to be getting much better. The country’s credit rate fall has been of great discussion ever since Standard and Poor’s downgraded it by a full point on Monday, August 8th 2011. To add to the blow, the U.S. stock exchange ended the day that Monday down more than 600 points. Continue reading
October Curse vs. Objective Analysis: The Choice Is Yours
Over the weekend, I went shopping for Halloween decorations. In the store, one of the clerks was wearing a white T-shirt with a puff-paint rendering of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The line representing prices was the color of blood red, dripping and splashed across the front. When I asked him what it was, he said “the October Curse.”
‘Tis the season of stock market adages; those age-old Wall Street platitudes that claim stock prices perform a certain way during certain months of the year. The problem is, such correlations are hardly a guarantee.
Take October, for example. Yes, this month has marked some of the darkest periods in stock market history: 1929, 1987 and on. Historically, however, it’s not the worst performing month. For example, the supposed “Halloween Jinx” failed to bring a deathly pallor to stocks in 2008, as the final days of that year’s October saw the biggest weekly gain since 1974.
Then there are these familiar saws of seasonal wisdom:
“As Goes The First Week of January, So Goes The Month”– In the first week of January 2010, the stock market enjoyed a powerful winning streak. Yet, by the end of the month, prices were back in the red, circling the drain of a two-month low.
“Sell In May And Go Away” — And don’t come back ’till St. Leger’s Day (September). If investors heeded this wisdom this year, they would have missed one of the strongest uptrends in stocks of the entire year from July to September.
“September Curse” – If you think October is supposed to be bad, September is widely assumed to take the financial killing cake. Yet this year, U.S. stocks enjoyed their strongest September in 71 years!
Bottom line: Don’t “buy” your trading strategy before the trend actually arrives. The choice comes down to old adages, or objective analysis. Pick the latter.
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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline October Curse Vs Objective Analysis: The Choice Is Yours. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
EWI’s Newest Service Picks ETFs: Interview with the Editor
EWI’s Wayne Stough adds another Flash opportunity service to the line-up: ETFs
Every trader or active investor at times wishes they could pick the brain of a pro that has “pulled the trigger” on real-money trades before.
EWI Director of Analysis Wayne Stough is one of these pros. For several years, several times per month, he’s been alerting his Flash service subscribers to opportunities in futures markets.
And now, there is a new addition to the Flash service line-up: ETF Opportunity Flash. We caught up with Wayne in his office and asked him a few questions:
Q: What method do you use when looking for high-probability trade set-ups? Continue reading
No Way Out
By Doug Casey, Casey Research
I really dislike sounding inflammatory. Saying that things are going to go terribly wrong runs a risk of being classed with those who think the world will end in December 2012 because of something Nostradamus or the Bible says, or because that’s what the Mayan calendar predicts.
This is different. In the real world, cause has effect. Nobody has a crystal ball, but a good economist (there are some, though very few, in existence) can definitely pinpoint causes and estimate not only what their immediate and direct effects are likely to be (that’s not hard; a smart kid can usually do that) but the indirect and delayed effects.
In the first half of this year, people were looking at the U.S. economy and seeing that some things were better. Auto sales were up – because of the wasteful Cash for Clunkers program. Home sales were up – because of the $8,000 credit and distressed pricing. Employment was up – partly because of Census hiring, and partly because hundreds of billions have been thrown at the economy. The recovery impresses me as a charade.
