Moving Averages: Determining Trend and Avoiding Whipsaws
The moving average is a simple tool designed to help you easily determine the underlying financial trend of a stock, bond, commodity, mutual fund, or any other financial instrument. According to Wikipedia a moving average is “commonly used with time series data to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles. The threshold between short-term and long-term depends on the application, and the parameters of the moving average will be set accordingly. For example, it is often used in technical analysis of financial data, like stock prices, returns or trading volumes.”
Moving Average
The moving average is often the first tool that budding forex traders encounter. Put simply, it is the average of an instrument’s price plotted over time. You will almost always find the moving average plotted alongside the price itself on a chart. You may find it useful for determining if the price is in a trend.
The first thing that you’re likely to notice about the price’s relation to the moving average is that it is always either above or below it. At first glance, this may seem incidental. However, you should not overlook it. If the price is above the moving average, then you know immediately that the price has been rising more than falling.
Conversely, if the price is below the moving average, it follows that the price has been falling more than rising. This alone does not tell you whether the price is in a trend, because it has a tendency to run flat at times. Still, you can use this relative position to immediately get a feel for price direction over the last several periods.
European Trends: Slowing Momentum
Today we have an interesting look at the trends in the European Financial Market from guest author Chris Ciovacco, Chief Investment Officer of Ciovacco Capital Management.
European Financial Market
As noted in the video below, the markets have little margin for error from a technical perspective, which means they have been in need of some good news. Good news did come this morning from Europe in the form of better than expected factory orders in Germany. On Sunday night, S&P 500 futures hit a low of 1,342. As of 8:30 a.m. EDT, they stood at 1,358 or 16 points above Sunday night’s low.
Why were the S&P 500 futures so weak on Sunday night? Elections were held over the weekend in France and Greece. The markets knew there was going to be some political turnover, but the magnitude of the turnover, especially in Greece, was worse than anticipated. Two key problems have surfaced:
- It will be very difficult to form a new government in Greece with no clear majority party/coalition coming out the other side of the elections. It is possible another round of elections will need to be held creating more fear, uncertainty, and doubt for market participants.
- Nicolas Sarkozy was ousted by disgruntled voters in France. The Sarkozy-Merkel tag team is no more, creating uncertainty relative to the direction of future debt crisis policy.
A third problem relates to the European market’s slowing momentum from a technical perspective. Daily and weekly charts have little room for error as of Friday’s close. Given the news from Europe over the weekend, it is unlikely the technicals will improve during Monday’s session. The video below shows clear deterioration in trends and momentum; it also explores an excellent way to monitor the battle between “risk on” and “risk off”.
One thing we have noticed over the years while building financial models is markets that are on the edge technically can find their footing just as they appear to be ready to accelerate to the downside. That’s not a forecast for the current market, which remains on the edge technically, but it serves as a reminder to keep an open mind about where we go from here.
About the Author:
Chris Ciovacco, is Chief Investment Officer of Ciovacco Capital Management. Chris Ciovacco has been managing money and serving investors for over 16 years. He is a regular contributor to Financial Sense, Seeking Alpha, and Safehaven. Mr. Ciovacco has been quoted in several media outlets, including the Dow Jones Wire Service, MarketWatch, Fox Business News, the Atlanta-Journal Consitution, and Nasdaq.com.
Oil Prices < $40/Barrel?
Marin Katusa vs. Porter Stansberry on Oil Prices
At the latest Casey Research conference, respected investment analyst Porter Stansberry stood at the podium and predicted that the price of oil will fall below US$40 per barrel within the next 12 months. Part of his reasoning revolves around the impact that the shale gas revolution has had in the United States – he believes a similar thing will happen with oil.
Porter is a friend of mine and a very smart, successful individual… but I think not.
From my perspective, the pressures at play in the oil market are all pushing prices in the opposite direction: up. Global supplies are tightening, costs are rising, and demand is not falling. Prices are going to remain high, and then go higher. And there will not be a shale oil revolution anytime soon.
I’m the kind of guy who puts his money where his mouth is, so I challenge Porter to a bet. I bet Mr. Stansberry that the price of oil will stay above $40 a barrel over the next 12 months. The wager? 100 ounces of silver.
Porter has made a lot of good calls in his career. I highly recommend watching his video The End of America, an interesting and entertaining look at his prediction that the US will soon drown in its debts and cease to be a global economic powerhouse, a transition that will lead to riots across the country.
Porter and I agree on a lot of things, but on this one he’s wrong. Below are my top ten reasons that high oil prices are here to stay. Continue reading
Casey Research Recommended Reading
By Robert Ross, Casey Research
We at Casey Research are often asked, “What books have had the biggest impact on your investing philosophy?” To find out, we took a quick, informal poll of our most prominent economists, editors, and analysts to see which books helped form their unique economic outlooks. The books range from mainstays of the political economy, such as Thomas Sowell’s A Conflict of Visions, to classics from antiquity, including Plato’s The Republic. However, genres often overlooked – like our founder Doug Casey’s longtime interest in science fiction – should give current and prospective subscribers a glimpse into the diverse influences that drive our publications. Continue reading
Six Resource Explorers with the Midas Touch
Ron Netolitzky, Bob Quartermain, Duane Poliquin, Ron Parratt, Ross Beaty, Jim O’Rourke
Moderated by Louis James, Casey Research
The following is a video recording of the Casey Research Explorers’ League panel – moderated by Louis James – at the Cambridge House Investment Conference in Vancouver, January 2012.
Listen to the valuable information and guidance passed along by some of the most successful mineral explorers in the world… or read the transcript below.
To see the video… Continue reading The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments
A look back on 18 months of analysis and reports on the European Credit Crisis
In 1999, 11 European countries surrendered their currencies for the euro and a shared monetary authority. Barely a decade later, the once-celebrated EU is in the midst of a credit crisis and its currency is facing collapse.
Elliott Wave International’s analysts have been anticipating and tracking the credit contagion across the European nations for the past two years. EWI subscribers were first alerted to the still-developing European debt crisis back in December 2009.
The following is excerpted from a December 2010 report from The European Debt Crisis, a new report from EWI. This free report provides important analysis from February 2010 through today that helps you understand what the European economic crisis can mean for your investments. Plus, you’ll get a unique perspective on what’s ahead. Find out how to access this free report below.
The Credit Crisis Spreads — December 2010
The credit crisis is escalating as expected. Back in January 2010, when ratings agency Moody’s bestowed “investment grade” status on a widely followed index of sovereign bonds, The European Financial Forecast argued that a renewed Primary-degree decline would in fact aim the credit crisis directly at this critical new realm. Our case for the looming sovereign debt debacle rested primarily on two pieces of evidence: (1) Primary wave 3 (circled) had begun in Europe’s peripheral markets, and (2) premiums for credit-default swaps on European sovereigns (think of an insurance policy against a national default) were already signaling the next phase of the crisis by surpassing their 2008-09 price extremes. The February 2010 issue of EFF published a chart showing rising Greek, Spanish and Italian swaps and offered this description of how Europe’s credit crunch would escalate: “The theme during Primary wave 1 (circled) was default at the individual, corporate and quasi-government level. The theme for Primary wave 3 (circled) will be default at the sovereign level.”
Today, the credit crunch is clearly angling itself away from mere corporations and toward whole countries. On November 15, Bloomberg announced the escalation with this headline: Continue reading
“Your Work Helps Me in a Very Practical Way”
Prechter talks with Mind of Money Host Doug Lodmell
Robert Prechter offers a broad overview of the Wave Principle in this interview clip with The Mind of Money host, Douglass Lodmell. Continue reading
Investing In Real Estate Securities For High Yield
by Charles Petty
Investing in real estate requires investment of not only money but also time and effort. Real Estate investing requires that you buy a property, rehab, maintain it and then rent it out.
But if you want to enjoy the fruits of investing in real estate without all the hassle, then real estate securities is the place to look. Even if you have another business but yet wish to dip your fingers in real estate without investing your precious time, then you can choose from any of the following real estate securities. Continue reading
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Editor
Doug Casey: Glowing Prospects for Uranium
On September 22, 2011, Karen Roche and JT Long of The Energy Report interviewed renowned speculator and financial author Doug Casey on his views about uranium. Read here why Doug thinks despite the recent bad press, “yellowcake” has a bright future.
The Western world’s skittishness, skepticism and staunch opposition when in comes to nuclear energy won’t stand in the way of its production elsewhere in the world. It will be full steam ahead in China, India and other developing nations, says Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey, and the Western world is tiny in comparison. In fact, “I’d say uranium is a great place to be for at least the next generation,” he tells us in this Energy Report exclusive. With ever-advancing technology enabling economic recovery in places where it previously wasn’t possible, he’s also optimistic about natural gas and oil. Continue reading
