The Gold Investor’s Biggest Risk
By Jeff Clark, Casey Research
While we’re convinced that our gold and silver investments will pay off, they don’t come without risk. What do you suppose is the biggest risk we face? Another 2008-style selloff? Gold stocks never breaking out of their funk? Maybe a depression that slams our standard of living?
Though those things are possible, we at Casey Research don’t see that as your greatest threat:
“Your biggest risk is not that gold or silver may fall in price. Nor is it that gold stocks could take longer to catch fire than we think. Not even the prospect of the Greater Depression. No, your biggest risk is political. As bankrupt governments get increasingly desperate for revenue, any monetary asset held domestically could be a target. It is absolutely essential that every investor diversify themselves politically. In fact, at this point, it is the one action that should be taken before anything else.” – Doug Casey, September 2011
I know many reading this are prudent investors. You own gold and silver as solid protection against currency debasement, inflation, and faltering economies. You set aside cash for emergencies. You have strong exposure to gold stocks, both producers and juniors, positioned ahead of what is likely the next-favored asset class. You feel protected and poised to profit.
Yet, despite all this preparation, you remain exposed to one of the biggest risks. Continue reading
How to Prepare for When Money Dies
An eye-opening interview with renowned speculator Doug Casey, conducted by Karen Roche and JT Long of The Gold Report. Doug explains why fiat currencies around the world are destined for collapse… and what investors can, and should, do to protect themselves.
If dollar-dumping turns from a trickle into a flood, look out. Exploding prices (aka exorbitant inflation) resulting from the devaluation of the dollar will compound the problems we saw in 2007–2009. Catastrophe will come when everybody realizes that the dollar is an “IOU nothing.” That’s the downside in the decade(s) ahead, according to Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey. But an optimist at heart, in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Doug also identifies some reasons to be hopeful.
The Gold Report: You’ve been talking about two ticking time bombs. One is the trillions of dollars owned outside the U.S. that investors could dump if they lose confidence. And the other is the trillions of dollars within the U.S. that were created to paper over the crisis that started in 2007. Are these really explosive circumstances that will bring catastrophic results? Or will it just result in a huge, but manageable, hangover?
Continue reading
Inflation Forecast
Forecasting Inflation
Our primary Inflation forecaster is our proprietary “Moore Inflation Predictor” (MIP)… as a matter of fact it is the reason we began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster as a paper newsletter. Prior to that James Moore published an economics based newsletter called “Your Window into the Future” and that is where he developed the “Moore Inflation Predictor.” We took over publication of the MIP when he passed away back in 1995. So how accurate are MIP forecasts?
Real Inflation compared to the MIP’s Inflation Forecast
Below you can see the MIP chart we published in April 2010 (with March inflation data). I’ve added the actual numbers (in Blue) since then and you can see that inflation has consistently fallen on the low side… almost exactly tracking the forecast “Likely Low” or “Extreme Low” line.
But you have to remember at the time this forecast was created everyone was convinced that the Trillion dollar stimulus would cause hyperinflation. But my article Velocity of Money and Money Multiplier – Why Deflation is Possible showed another possibility for negative economic growth.
