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Foreigners Losing Confidence in Holding US Treasury and Agency Debt
By Bud Conrad, Casey Research
Foreign central banks buy US Treasury and Agency debt through accounts at the Federal Reserve, where it is held in custody. Without these central banks buying our debt, the US federal government would have to find a new source of funds or the result could be higher interest rates. Looking at the data on a monthly basis (and then multiplied by 12 to give the annual rate), here is the dramatic picture of how foreign central-bank purchases of our debt have shifted, from buying $500 billion to selling off $1 trillion. At this rate of selling over several months, interest rates would go higher – if other things were equal. Of course, things are not equal because the Fed has been forcing rates lower with its massive QE2 and other programs. QE2 was $600 billion over nine months, or an annualized rate of $800 billion per year. Since foreigners are selling off our government debt, Fed purchases of government debt are even more necessary. Continue reading
China: Continued Boom or Bursting Bubble?
By James Quinn, Casey Research
In a recent article, How China Ate America’s Lunch, Clif Carothers described what China has accomplished in the last thirty years:
In thirty short years, China was able to accelerate her GDP from $216 billion to $6 trillion. She amassed reserve capital of $3 trillion. She reversed America’s fortunes from the greatest creditor nation to the greatest debtor nation. She gutted America’s factories while creating the world’s largest manufacturing base in her own country. A measure of output that highly correlates to GDP is energy consumption. In June of this year, 2011, China surpassed the United States as the largest consumer of energy on the planet. While the US consumes 19% of the world’s energy, China consumes 20.3%.
While China was growing their economy by a phenomenal 2,800%, the US GDP grew from $2.3 trillion to $15 trillion – a mere 650% increase, of which 420% was due to inflation. There is no question that China’s progress has been remarkable. The question is whether that growth is sustainable and built upon a solid foundation. Continue reading
Time to Go Global
By Chris Wood, Editor, Casey Research
Here at Casey Research, we really don’t enjoy being a buzz-kill. It’s just that we think it’s more important for investors to be well informed about the reality in which we find ourselves today than it is to be happy-go-lucky all the time.
The good news is that when the stuff hits the fan, as it has for going on two years now, it opens up a number of unexpected opportunities for profit. Even in the hairiest situations, there are ways to protect yourself.
Having said that, let’s start with the bad news… Continue reading
The Advantages of Global Diversification
Almost every day we hear of more ways the government is trying to control our lives and get into our wallet in order to pay for it. Like sand through an hourglass our freedom is slowly slipping away. Everything requires more reporting, more government oversight and more of our money to do it. Only you can protect yourself but it takes knowledge, and effort in order to do it. In this article Terry Coxon reviews the plusses and minuses of your overseas options. ~editor
Expatriate Your Wallet
By Terry Coxon, contributing author of Casey Research’s ‘Going Global’ Special Report
If everything you own is held in your own name in your own country, then you are not merely exposed, you are vulnerable absolutely, to whatever decisions the government might make about how you should behave and who gets the wealth you’ve earned. Tomorrow’s new government measure, which might land out of the blue, could be a law that affects everyone, or it could be a rule devised to deal with people like you. Or, it could be an administrative action aimed at you alone. In any case, with all your assets at home, you’d find out how the lobster feels when his trap is being hauled out of the water. Nothing he can do about it.
The only way to protect yourself against the risk of being boiled in a government pot is to keep some of your assets in another country. Continue reading
