Where (and When) to Place Your Investment Bets?
By Jeff Clark, Casey Research
Let’s explore the advantages of saving in gold and silver over dollars. Here’s a hypothetical look at what could occur over the remainder of this decade.
The charts below compare saving $100/month in gold and silver vs. an interest-bearing money-market account. For our projections, we assumed gold’s average annual gain of 18% since 2001 will continue through 2020. For the money-market account, we used an annual interest rate of 1% in 2012 and added 0.5% each year, so that by 2020 it’s earning 5%.
Here’s what would transpire by 2020: Continue reading
Will India Stop Buying Gold?
By Jeff Clark, Casey Research
We’ve read mixed reports about how lofty gold and silver prices are affecting demand in India. One month we’re told demand is up, and the next it’s supposedly down. I’m not suggesting that official reports are inaccurate, but it is admittedly confusing and doesn’t help us understand the real trend in the country.
Why should we care about the gold market in India? Well, let’s face it; the nation is one of the biggest consumers of the metal, a major driver that can give us hints about demand and investment trends, along with what to perhaps eventually expect here in North America. But reading third-party reports about India is very different than getting information firsthand from a credible source in the country. I wanted to get to the bottom of what’s really going on in India by talking to a reputable bullion dealer who could give me the inside scoop, an up-to-the-moment dispatch from the front lines, as it were. So I did just that.
Ashish and Rashmi Sand own Savio Jewellery (Savio means “shine” in Italian), a design studio and jewelry factory in Jaipur, India. They’ve received many design and manufacturing awards since starting their business six years ago, winning five awards in just the past six months. They source gold from bullion agents in Jaipur, who in turn obtain it from dealers in Hong Kong, Dubai, Mumbai, and Delhi. They have industry contacts, friends, and relatives that span the globe, from the US and UK to Asia and Australia. If anybody knows what’s happening in the physical gold and silver bullion markets and the Indian jewelry market, it’s them.
In this exclusive interview, you can read what Ashish and Rashmi told me about unstoppable demand, growing silver interest, budding demand for coins and bars, reduced selling, shifting trends with women, burgeoning ETFs, and why they believe a bubble is headed our way…
Jeff Clark: Ashish, tell us about your manufacturing facility and design studio. Continue reading
Time to Accumulate Gold and Silver
By Jeff Clark, Casey Research
Do you own enough gold and silver for what lies ahead?
If 10% of your total investable assets (i.e., excluding equity in your primary residence) aren’t held in various forms of gold and silver, we at Casey Research think your portfolio is at risk.
After speaking at the Cambridge House conference last month and talking with many attendees, I came away convinced that most investors fall into one of two categories: those that hold an abundance of gold and silver (which tends to be physical forms only), and those with little or none. While both groups need to diversify, I’m a little more concerned about the second group. Here’s why.
Regardless of what you think will happen over the remainder of this decade, one thing seems virtually certain: the value of paper money will be affected, perhaps dramatically. Even if the economy slips into deflation, the deflation wouldn’t last long. A panicked Fed would print to the max and set off a wild rise in prices. This is why we’re convinced currency dilution will not only continue but accelerate.
Let’s take a look at what’s happened so far with the value of our currency vs. gold, after accounting for the loss in purchasing power. Continue reading
The Face of Volatility
By Jeff Clark, Casey Research
On February 29, gold dropped 4.8% and silver 6.2% (based on London fix prices). That’s quite the fall for one day. We’ve seen prices that have risen that much, too. But as I’m about to show, these ain’t nothin’, baby.
Based on our experience, we’ve been saying for some time that volatility will increase as the markets fight their way to the mania phase of this cycle – and that once there, the gyrations will jump even higher. This call doesn’t exactly require one to go out on a limb; it makes sense since more investors will be crowding in – and volatility was high in the 1979-’80 mania.
First, let’s put last Wednesday’s big plunge in perspective. Here’s a picture of the daily changes in the gold price since 2003, based on London fix prices. (This chart is very busy, but I want to show the bulk of the bull market in one visual.) Continue reading
When Will Silver Reach a New High?
By Andrey Dashkov, Casey Research
In last week’s Metals, Mining, and Money from Casey Research, Jeff Clark estimated that given the magnitude of the correction that started last September, it may take until May 2012 for gold to reach a new high. Let’s take a look at how long it may take for silver to rebound.
It’s a commonly known fact that silver is more volatile than gold. Already in this decade, silver has risen by a factor of 12 from its ten-year low ($48.70 vs. $4.07), while gold has seen about a sevenfold climb ($255.95 vs. $1,895).
This volatility – as you’ll see in a minute – holds for corrections as well. On average, silver’s retreats have been deeper and longer than gold’s. The three big gold corrections we looked at last week averaged 22.8%. Take a look at the three biggest for silver, along with how long it’s taken to recover and establish new highs. Continue reading
Was 2011 a Dud or a Springboard for Gold?
By Jeff Clark, Casey Research
2011 was remarkable in many ways for the precious metals markets. Gold soared to new highs in early September, hitting at an intraday record of $1,920/ounce on the fifth. Silver screamed to within a hair of $50 on April 28. Corrections ensued, and the metals ended the year on a disappointing note for silver and an underwhelming note for gold. Equities for the sector were down, to way down for junior ventures, logging their worst annual return since 2008.
Here’s a table of 2011 returns from most major asset classes: Continue reading
Forecasting Gold and Silver Prices
Gold and Silver are the “talk of the town” right now after making substantial gains over the last ten years and meteoric gains over the last year. But recently they have lost a bit of their luster as they began a long overdue correction. Is this the end for gold and silver or only a brief pause on their ride to the moon?
Anyone who has spent much time on this site is familiar with Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave. His fantastic team has been providing us with individual articles and links to some excellent information over at elliottwave.com.
Their experienced analysts keep a constant eye on the markets, and provide insights into trends that are available nowhere else. What could be better than having someone of that caliber to turn to in times of uncertainty?
Book of the Month:
How to Forecast Gold and Silver Using the Wave Principle
by Robert R. Prechter, Jr.
How to Forecast Gold and Silver will show you what matters — and what doesn’t — when you want to invest in precious metals.
Robert Prechter published specific gold and silver forecasts for 22 years during one of the metals’ most historically baffling periods and correctly called nearly every major turn and trend during that time. And now he offers that entire body of work for public scrutiny and personal education.
In beautiful 8 1/2 x 11-inch hardcover fashion, How to Forecast Gold and Silver Using the Wave Principle revisits all of Robert Prechter’s real-time metals commentary during the bear-market years of 1980-2001. Everyone from die-hard Elliott wavers to precious metal enthusiasts can benefit from its 500 pages packed with insight. More Info
More Books from Elliottwave
Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression (Updated for 2009)
by Robert R. Prechter, Jr.
There’s no question that Conquer the Crash foresaw and explained every chapter of today’s financial crisis, years in advance – including the stock plunge, the housing collapse and subprime debacle, the liquidity crisis, the Fed’s failures, and lots more. The unsettling part is how much of Prechter’s book includes chapters about what is yet to come.
Updated for 2009, a CD-ROM supplement and free Readers-Only Webpage, ensures the book’s message never goes out of date. More Info
Prechter’s Perspective (2004)
by Robert R. Prechter, Jr.
The best way to get experience without risking your neck? Find a personal mentor who has the time and interest to teach you everything they know. Bob Prechter has spent three decades building his market wisdom, and he shares it with you here in an intimate Q&A.
Buy it Now for $27 More Info
Gold vs. Silver Ratio
As anyone who has read my articles for any length of time knows, I am a big fan of ratios. I find them very useful for tracking the comparative value of things especially when presented in chart form. Over the years I have tracked the Gold vs Oil ratio, Gasoline vs. Oil, and many more. Generally they are used to target underpriced sectors so you can tell which one is a better investment.
But in today’s article Nico Isaac shows us that by looking at the Gold/Silver ratio we can tell something else and that is how conservative the investing public is. Continue reading
Are We Running Out of Silver?
(Excerpt from the Casey Research 2011 Silver Investing Guide)
Silver has been on fire over the last three years — substantially outperforming its spotlight-grabbing cousin, gold.
Because we believe this bull run is far from over, we advise investors to always maintain exposure to the precious metals markets. Even if you haven’t yet participated in the run-up of both gold and silver, I’m glad you’re ready to take a look at the investment potential of silver.
The question every investor faces in a bull market is: Do I buy now, anticipating prices will continue higher — and chance getting clobbered if a correction arrives? Or do I wait for a pullback and possibly miss out on big gains? There’s risk either way.
Our goal in this report is to suggest various ways you can invest in silver, while underscoring the importance of patience and discipline. Investors must remain patient to avoid chasing silver, overpaying, and draining their cash. Instead, we recommend that you use temporary price declines to steadily accumulate the best silver stocks and your preferred form of bullion. Continue reading
