Is Cisco Systems Stock About to Breakout?
What Makes Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO) a Stock to Watch?
What Makes Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ: CSCO) Worth a Second Look?
Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) is a mega-cap stock trading at near fair value. Is Cisco Systems, Inc worth adding to your portfolio?
Cisco Systems Stock is on the Move in April Read More »
What is the McClellan Index and why should you care? According to Investopedia, “The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator, which is a market breadth indicator based on stock advances and declines. The McClellan Summation Index is used in technical analysis and can be used to identify bullish or bearish bias, as well as the strength of the trend. It is a different way of quantifying the movements in the market other than looking at the price levels of the different indices.”
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention Read More »
In anticipation of the September 25-26 Fed meeting, CNBC ran this headline (Sept. 21): “Record High Stocks Face Fed Rate Hike.” implying that the Fed’s interest rate decisions actually affect the stock market. Common wisdom says that “falling interest rates means higher stock prices, while rising interest rates means lower stock prices.” At first blush this might sound logical because rising interest rates makes fixed income investments more attractive because they pay more and have less risk than stocks. So some of the available capital will flow into bonds, etc. thus starving the stock market and putting downward pressure on prices. In this article, Elliott Wave International contends that there is actually no consistent relationship between interest rates and the stock market and they present examples of how the exact opposite of what you would expect has happened.
Do the FED’s Interest Rates Affect the Stock Market? Read More »
In the following article, Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management looks at the current market volatility compared to similar occurrences in past years to determine how much risk is in the market today.
Price Action Year-to-Date:- What Can We Learn from History?
Reference Points Provide Context
A December 2016 post highlighted similarities between late 2016/early 2017 and the 1994-1995 period. The analogy proved useful in 2017 with stocks posting a rare low-volatility year that featured a strong bullish trend, which compared very favorably with the strong-gains/low-volatility year of 1995.
Is the Current Highly Volatile Market Really Bearish? Read More »
Corrections are a normal part of any “Bull Market” and a 10% correction is necessary every now and then to shake out the “weak hands”. Even a 20% correction can be no cause for worry. Today Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management looks at the recent correction and where the market now stands. Are we in for a new bear market or is this just business as usual for a bull market correction?
A Correction or a New Bear Market? Read More »
In this article Chris Ciovacco looks at a variety of indicators to determine the probability that the market will take a dive in the near future. He’ll look at New Highs vs. New Lows, and compare market vulnerability of the 2011 market compared to today.
Low Probability Market Will Crash Read More »
History suggests that investors cling to hope all the way down. As this chart of the average holding period for a NYSE stock illustrates, investors actually turn up the hope and cling most tenaciously to their shares in bear markets. In bull markets they may espouse the buy and hold approach, but the chart shows that they don’t actually practice what they preach.
Why Investors Cling to Hope Amid Stock Market Turmoil Read More »
Any data that tells us to keep an open mind about better than expected outcomes must be confirmed by the stock market; something that has not happened yet. For example, if the stock market is to rally for the next few months in a surprising manner, that is not possible as long as the S&P 500 fails to make a higher high above 2,134. Our market model does not make decisions based on what “may or may not happen”. Therefore, the only real value to the table and video above is to help us remain open to and prepared for all outcomes (bullish and bearish). A few reasonable S&P 500 guideposts relative to improving bullish probabilities include 2096, 2107, 2116, and 2134. Each push above a guidepost level improves the odds for the bullish case. Below these levels, the expression “the market has some work to do” applies.
Reasons To Remain Open To Bullish Outcomes For Stocks Read More »
Most economists and stock market participants believe that FED policy can exhibit a tremendous amount of power over the movement of the markets and market participants perception of the future of that policy can affect the market in the short run. The major exception is Robert Prechter who believes that “monetary policy doesn’t have a reliable effect on the stock market.” He recommends that you Don’t Get Ruined by This Popular Investment Myth. But in today’s post Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management looks at whether the FED could trigger a slide in the stock market. ~Tim McMahon, editor.
Could The Fed Trigger A Deflationary Slide In Stocks? Read More »
While the Federal Reserve has laid out specific plans to end their quantitative easing (QE) program, a new season of QE may be getting ready to kick-off across the pond. From Reuters:
The euro fell broadly on Wednesday, hitting a 19-month low against the Swiss franc, as speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will resort to quantitative easing was fueled by yet more bad news from the eurozone…ECB chief Mario Draghi fueled speculation that monetary policy would be further loosened in the eurozone over the weekend by saying the central bank would use “all the available instruments” to deal with the threat of deflation at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson Hole. Developments on Wednesday only worsened the picture for the eurozone: data showed German consumer morale fell for the first time in 1-1/2 years, while Italy’s economy minister said the country must cut its growth forecast.
QE Ending Or Just Getting Started? Read More »
