Moore Inflation Predictor ©
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The  Moore Inflation Predictor  forecasts the inflation rate one year into the future with 97% accuracy.

Moore Inflation Predictor © Chart Forecast Beat Inflation: Save $1000/year on Credit Card interest  

What is the Moore Inflation Predictor©?

The Moore Inflation Predictor© (MIP) is a highly accurate graphical representation forecasting the future direction of the inflation rate. It has a 97%+ accuracy rate on forecasting inflation rate direction & turning points. And over 90% of the time the inflation rate falls within the projected "likely" range and 7% of the time it falls within the "possible" range.

By watching the turning points, we can profit from inflation hedges (like Gold, Real Estate and Energy Producers) when the inflation rate is trending up and from Bonds when the inflation rate is trending down.

In addition, the Moore Inflation Predictor forecast could be used to judge whether to lock in a mortgage rate or wait a month or two for a better rate.

To see how well the MIP has done in predicting inflation see some previous MIP inflation forecasts with a reality line added.

Current Inflation Forecast

Once again the MIP got the direction right but it understated the magnitude of the decline.  But you can't blame the MIP too much this is the largest monthly decline since the Great Depression.

Last month the BLS and the news media reported the -1.01% monthly decline as largest decline since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking seasonal adjustments in 1947.  But that is on a "Seasonally adjusted basis".  On an actual basis it was the largest since 1950.  This month's  -1.97% decline is greater than all monthly declines including the February 1933  decline of -1.55% . Making it  the largest since January 1933 (in the Great Depression) when it declined -5.84% in a single month.

Check out the monthly inflation rates since 1914.

Note:  This month we have added a blue shaded (under water) region to the MIP to indicate deflation. 

At this point the MIP is projecting more decreases through mid-year but that doesn't take into consideration FED action which could boost inflation rates earlier.  In addition. the bailouts could radically skew the inflation rate towards the end of next year.  Making hyperinflation a possibility even though due to the nature of the MIP it does not take Bailouts into consideration.

Robert Prechter of the Elliotwave Theorist is forecasting the possibility of deflation. To read his free report on on Why we are headed for Deflation Click Here.

Also See Elliotwave article Do You Know how to Preserve Your Wealth? for more information on investing for safety.

Tim McMahon, Editor
Financial Trend Forecaster

Disclaimer:

At Financial Trend Forecaster we are not registered investment advisors and do not provide any individualized advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance and future accuracy and profitable results cannot be guaranteed.


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Last Month's Inflation Forecast

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