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Special Market Alert! Have we seen the bottom?
On Wednesday March 12th the market neared its October lows but extremely significantly DID NOT break through to new LOWS! This is extremely Bullish!
The following table shows the October lows compared to the March lows. Continue reading
An Investment Lesson from Deflation Scares
On November 6, 2002, The Wall Street Journal, in a front-page article entitled “Inside the FED, Deflation draws a closer look”, stated that the FED was discussing the possibility of deflation at a country inn in Woodstock, VT. It said “central bank officials” attended this ominous-sounding meeting.
But wait, when was this meeting? A careful reading of the article reveals that the meeting happened in 1999! This is news? A meeting three years ago is now making headlines? What gives?
Why would the WSJ publish it now? Why not 3 years ago? The answer is simple and once you understand the ““why” of it you will become a much wiser investor.
The why is simple… front page headlines sell papers. Continue reading
The MIP Accurate Even Under Stress
Why the Deviation?
This historical chart has been posted in response to a question posed by a regular viewer. He asked why our projection deviated so drastically from from the actual CPI as shown by the red line on this chart. As you can see the deviation occurred for several months but during the most recent months our projection from last November has been amazingly accurate. As you can see the red line has tracked the “most likely” line very closely.
So the question remains why was our projection so far off during the period from October through April? We must remember that the MIP is a mathematical projection and there are a few thing beyond its scope. Those things are large random political forces.
Some examples of these type of forces are: Continue reading
