Low Probability Market Will Crash

In the following article Chris Ciovacco looks at a variety of indicators to determine the probability that the market will take a dive in the near future. He'll look at New Highs vs. New Lows, and compare market vulnerability of the 2011 market … [Read more...]

Why Investors Cling to Hope Amid Stock Market Turmoil

History shows that many investors will hold stocks all the way down By Elliott Wave International I was watching financial television as the Dow Industrials fell 400-plus points on Sept. 1. Two market professionals were interviewed: Both said … [Read more...]

Reasons To Remain Open To Bullish Outcomes For Stocks

When investor sentiment reaches extreme levels, it can be a contrary indicator for the stock market. For example, the highest bullish reading in the history of the American Association Of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey was 75% bulls … [Read more...]

With Summers Out: Which Way for Stocks?

I've never been a fan of Larry Summers. Perhaps he was too smart for his own good. After all, he was responsible for driving Jack Meyer out of managing the Harvard endowment fund. Meyer took the Harvard Endowment from $4.8 billion to $25.9 billion in … [Read more...]

Signs of the Top

It  may seem like we are constantly beating the drum of a top in the market with recent articles like  the NASDAQ ROC stock commentary , Obama’s Comments Worry Stock Bulls and today's Signs of the Top, but each of these articles was developed … [Read more...]

Obama’s Comments Worry Stock Bulls

In my recent NASDAQ ROC stock commentary I said, Caution: Watch for the next sell signal. From the sell signal in July of 1996 to the final Sell signal in April of 2000 was roughly 3 ½ years. The time from the sell signal in April 2004 until the … [Read more...]

Economic & Fed Confusion Reign In Markets

In today's article Chris Ciovacco looks at the current battle between Bulls and Bears in the market and what we should watch closely and what we should do about it. Is this just a correction or has the market made a new high?  ~Tim McMahon, … [Read more...]

Will Wednesday’s Fed Minutes Spark Sell-Off?

Since the S&P 500 made an intraday low of 1,536 on April 18, the widely-followed stock index has tacked on 130 points and the markets have migrated back to full-bore risk-on mode. Wednesday Winddown? Two key events this Wednesday could give … [Read more...]

Stock Market: When Do I Buy a “Buy”?

As an individual investor I read quite a few investment newsletters and investing websites in addition to what I publish here on Financial Trend Forecaster and so I am usually inundated with multitudes of recommendations on various investment ideas. … [Read more...]

Three cheers for the Dow

The Dow has been setting record highs for over a week now. You'd think the economy was booming or something. But as I've said before perhaps it is all just "funny money."  Is it possible that even though inflation isn't affecting the price of most … [Read more...]