Treasury

Inverted Yield Curve 2023

Deepest Yield Curve Inversion Since 1981

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Mark Thornton and Ryan McMaken discuss the current yield curve inversion. The U.S. Treasury funds deficit spending by issuing debt instruments with a range of maturities. Treasury Bills have maturities from one month to one year. Treasury Notes have maturities from two to ten years. And long-term debt is issued as Treasury Bonds with 20- and 30-year maturities. The yield curve is created by comparing interest rates between ten-year debt to 3-month debt. Logically, long-term debt should require a higher interest rate than short-term debt simply because a lot can happen in ten years so there is more uncertainty, i.e., risk.

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Chinese Hold US Treas Bar Chart

U.S.-China Trade War: Who will Win?

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One of Trump’s campaign platforms was that the U.S. wasn’t getting fair deals in international trade. His two biggest examples were NAFTA (trade with Canada and Mexico) and trade with China. And in 2018 the media panicked and drove the markets down anticipating that Trump would somehow destroy all trade and the U.S. would plunge the world into another depression. Then in  November 2018 NAFTA (North American Free Trade) was replaced by USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement) which included  new protections for U.S. intellectual property, Digital Trade, Anti-corruption, and Good Regulatory Practices. It also included provisions “Creating a more level playing field for American workers, including improved rules of origin for automobiles, trucks, other products, and disciplines on currency manipulation.”And now six months later the Trump administration is taking on China. But China is not Mexico and it has a lot more clout so where does the U.S. stand in this fight? 

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Just When You Thought Bonds Were Safe

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In today’s article Jared Dillian compares the 2/10 yield curve to a “Double Black Diamond” ski slope. In other words, it’s wickedly steep! The yield curve he is talking about here is the 10 year treasury yield minus the 2 year treasury yield. This spread measures the steepness of the yield curve. When it is high there is a big difference between the 10 year treasury yield and the 2 year. When it is small investors are not receiving much benefit for taking on longer term risk. Normally the yield curve is positive and longer-term rates are significantly higher than shorter-term rates. In abnormal cases the yield curve becomes “inverted” and short-term rates are actually higher than long-term rates. As Jared tells us, if even a small amount of inflation returns it will create havoc in the long term bond market.

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How the Golden Reset Button Could Drive the Price of Gold to $20,000.

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Rumors have been rife about the treasury minting a single trillion dollar platinum coin to bypass the debt ceiling limitations. But it is probably just a pipe dream because first of all where would they get a trillion dollars worth of platinum? Do you know how many tons of platinum that is? And secondly if

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