Opec

Opec- New Cartel

New Oil Cartel Threatening OPEC

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When reports emerged that India and China are in talks about forming an oil buyers’ club, OPEC was probably too busy with its upcoming June 22 meeting to concern itself with that dangerous alliance. Now, it may be time for it to start worrying.

“The timing is right. The boom in U.S. oil and gas production gives us greater leverage against OPEC,” the Times of India quoted an Indian official as saying last month after the formal start of said talks. The two countries, after all, account for a combined 17 percent of global oil consumption and they are the ones that would be the hardest hit if prices rise as a result of OPEC’s actions.

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IEA: High Oil Prices “Taking A Toll” On Demand

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Geopolitics has taken over the oil market, driving oil prices up to three-year highs. The inventory surplus has vanished, and more outages could push oil prices up even higher. Yet, there are some signs that demand is starting to take a hit as oil closes in on $80 per barrel.

In the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) May Oil Market Report, the agency said that OPEC might be needed to step in and fill the supply gap if a significant portion of Iran oil goes offline. Saudi Arabia suggested shortly after the U.S. announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal that OPEC would act to mitigate any supply shortfall should it occur.

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Where Will Oil Prices Be in 2020?

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The oil industry is notoriously cyclical. Perhaps because it takes so long to bring new supply on-line. As prices rise and the industry blossoms the oil machinery kicks into gear. Independants locate the oil and the fields get bought up by majors who bring it into production, this boosts supply. And then when the supply hits the market, prices go down, small over-leveraged players get squeezed and then go bankrupt, and exploration dries up. Eventually, this causes supply to slacken and prices begin rising again. And the cycle continues. In today’s article we’ll look at where oil prices could be 3 years on as increased demand meets Saudi production cuts and shale-oil production increases.

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Oil Tanker

Is a Second OPEC Cut In The Cards?

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In November 2016 with great fanfare OPEC announced a cut in production in an effort to drive up prices in light of the massive global supply glut partially the result of U.S. shale oil flooding the market. This supply glut had put every Oil producing country in fiscal straits (since most of the governments derive a substantial portion of their revenues from oil). It also squeezed the private U.S. shale oil producers who had racked up significant debt prior to the oil price crash. In the months since we have published several articles pertaining to the price of oil. Initially OPEC’s production cut drove up oil prices but in Oil Prices High Enough to Spark Shale Rebound we showed that Shale production was capping the oil price gains.

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The Oil War Just Getting Started

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Let the battle begin. OPEC is trying to cut production and drive prices up while U.S. Shale Oil producers are seeing the increase in oil prices as an opportunity to get back in the game. More oil rigs are coming on line in the U.S. accompanied by increased drilling activity. BP’s 2017 Energy outlook is saying there is plenty of oil until at least 2050 but this includes an estimate that oil demand will slow in the coming years.

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The Truth About the Russia-Saudi Oil Deal

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If you follow the oil news, you’ve probably heard about the deal between the energy ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, and Venezuela. When the news was announced Oil prices jumped. But if you think this deal actually means anything I’ve got a bridge to sell you. So before you go buying any bridges or buying any oil future’s contracts, let’s take a look at the facts.

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OPEC Self-Destruction Thanks To Saudi Oil Strategy?

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This article shows that the Saudis cannot achieve, or even come close to, their estimated 2014 net export revenue if they prolong their current strategy. This doesn’t mean the Saudis won’t stay the course despite its peril to their own situation. To repeat the two modified Keynes quotes: This doesn’t mean the Saudis won’t stay the course despite its peril to their own situation. To repeat the two modified Keynes quotes at the beginning of this article: “A government can stay irrational longer than it can stay solvent.” “Even in the short term, you’re dead, if you commit suicide.”

“A government can stay irrational longer than it can stay solvent.”

“Even in the short term, you’re dead, if you commit suicide.”

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Falling Oil Prices

Oil Price Tumbles After OPEC Releases 2015 Forecast

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Oil prices are falling and that is good for consumers as their daily heating and transportation costs fall. It also benefits producers as a small company could easily save $100,000 a year in energy costs. If you multiply that by the number of businesses in the country you can see the staggering effect lower energy prices can have on the economy. But not everyone is happy about falling energy prices. Many conventional energy and alternative energy producers require oil prices to be above $70/ barrel in order for their business models to remain in the black. And all of the OPEC countries except two require higher oil prices in order for them to balance their countries budgets. So although oil prices are low now it may not last.

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