From March 2024 Bitcoin was in a downward slanted channel. Typically when this occurs a breakout can be expected to travel in the same direction as it entered. So, since it entered the channel in the upward direction we can expect a breakout to the upside.
Bitcoin Breaks Out Read More »
One of Trump’s big talking points in this election cycle was tariffs. So, what are tariffs and are they a good thing?
Tariffs or “import duties” have existed since the country began in the 1700s. Initially, they were imposed by Britain on imports to the Colonies. One memorable instance is the 1767 Townshend Revenue Act, which eventually resulted in the Boston Tea Party. (But not for the reasons you might think.)…
For many years economists believed, as Janet Yellen says, “if a company wants to export to the United States at below-market prices, we should buy the goods and send a thank-you note” but recently economists have begun rethinking that idea. What if those cheap imports last long enough to destroy all domestic production? Then you are at the mercy of foreign producers and all those domestic jobs moved overseas…
“When considering trade policy, it is important to recognize the difference between using tariffs to tilt the international playing field in favor of American businesses and using them as a negotiating tool…
Tariffs can help level the playing field when currency exchange rates aren’t doing the job they should be. Interestingly, back in 2005, it was none other than Democrat Chuck Schumer who led the charge to impose a 35% tariff on China…
Is Trump Right About Tariffs? Read More »
Just a few short years ago MicroStrategy (MSTR) was a run-of-the-mill software company. At that point, founder and CEO Michael Saylor realized that unless something changed, the company would remain a slowly dying cash cow. They had lots of companies paying them licensing fees for their software but eventually through attrition that would come to
What Makes MicroStrategy Special Read More »
The Chinese Monetary Bazooka– China has unleashed a monetary liquidity bazooka in an attempt to re-inflate not only Chinese Real Estate but also the Chinese Stock Market.
China’s Monetary Bazooka Read More »
The “M2 money supply” includes liquid assets such as Cash, Checking Accounts, Savings Accounts, CDs, etc.
Looking at the chart below we can see that the M2 money supply increased gradually for many years until the pandemic when it shot up drastically, and then in 2022 the FED significantly decreased the money supply for the first time. But over the last year or so it appears to be resuming its previous uptrend.
How Much is the Money Supply Growing? Read More »
Gold has reached all-time highs not only in nominal terms but by other measures as well. Is it overpriced now? What about Oil?
Is Gold Overpriced? Read More »
Everyone knows that the Crypto market is volatile. And we got another dose of that on the 4th of July. But rather than fireworks, Crypto markets crashed. The year 2024, started out very bullish for Crypto, with Bitcoin (BTC) up sharply… partly due to BTC getting approval for ETFs and partly due to the expected halving which would cut supply. But so far this year, the truism “Buy the rumor, Sell the news” has held for the Bitcoin halving.
Crypto: Crash or Opportunity? Read More »
This past week a few slightly “under-the-radar” events caused a major shift in the crypto arena that most people are totally unaware of. Just a couple of weeks ago, Joe Biden was threatening to Veto pro-Crypto legislation, Sen. Elizabeth Warren was railing about the evils of crypto and how it is only good for hiding assets and mafia transactions. And the Democrat-controlled Security Exchange Commission (SEC) is actively targeting several major crypto sponsors despite having approved Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in January.
Then along comes Trump, who holds a Crypto “Love Fest” at Mar-a-Lago, which catapults crypto into the political spectrum… Ethereum ETFs are approved… the House approves the FIT21 Act, and the tide against Crypto has turned.
The Tectonic Shift in Crypto Read More »
A lot is happening in the cryptoscape both from a regulatory and an innovation standpoint. Crypto has the potential to revolutionize the world as much as the Industrial Revolution, transistors, computers, or the internet did. And it is still in its infancy. But it is still possible for regulations to try to strangle the infant in its crib. But if that happens in one country, the innovation will simply move somewhere where it is appreciated. This could be devastating for the economy of any country that gets this wrong and tries to stifle innovation.
Crypto Goes Mainstream Read More »
Our ROC system is very good at spotting major turning points in the market. So this month we adapted it to look at Bitcoin and Ethereum. While doing this we changed the look of how we do ROC, so we will be adapting the regular ROC charts to the new style as well. The advantage of this new look is that you can see the underlying index at the same time, so you can see exactly where the various signals kicked in and how it evolved from there. Also, I think the new look is much cleaner and less cluttered.
Applying the ROC to Crypto Read More »
