Commodity Trends

California Utilities

California’s Latest Hustle: Utility Bills Based on Ratepayers’ Income

Utility bills—for electricity, natural gas, water, and garbage—have by long-standing tradition been based on customer usage, measured in kilowatt-hours of electricity, therms or Btu of natural gas, hundred cubic feet of water, or number of garbage cans. Every residence and business has electric, gas, and water meters that measure utility usage… But what if utilities based their fixed fee on customers’ income levels rather than a flat uniform fee for every customer?

California’s Latest Hustle: Utility Bills Based on Ratepayers’ Income Read More »

Gold- Barbarous Relic?

The Barbarous Relic Rides Again

 Gold has shown some resiliency in 2024. Recently, John Authers at Bloomberg published the following comparison of gold vs. the S&P 500. With all the hype around the magnificent gains in the stock market you might think that it has massively outperformed gold. But currently, one ounce of gold buy the same number of shares of the S&P 500 as in 1971 when Nixon severed the link between gold and the dollar.

The Barbarous Relic Rides Again Read More »

Science vs Technology

Does Science Shape Economic Progress?

We might think that scientific breakthroughs are necessary in order for us to have technological advancement. But as Lipton Matthews shows in this article, that isn’t necessarily the case. He says, “history has shown that science often lags technology” but “advancements in science propel technological growth.” One key concept to understanding this article is the difference between Science and Technology. The goal of Science is knowledge and understanding. But the goal of Technology is to mold the environment. Technology is the practical application of science.

Does Science Shape Economic Progress? Read More »

Fifth Third Bank Louisville

Commercial Banks Suffer Along With Commercial Real Estate

This article looks at the current abysmal state of the commercial real estate market and its effects on companies like Blackstone, Fifth Third Bank, and Union Bank. With commercial real estate selling as low as $9 /sf, these companies are taking a big hit to profits as they try to sell excess real estate for less than half of what they paid for it just a few years ago. Some companies like Brookfield are simply walking away from the properties in places like downtown Los Angeles.

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Sq FT per person

Housing Is Getting Less Affordable

The average square footage in new single-family houses has been declining since 2015. House sizes tend to fall just during recessionary periods. It happened from 2008 to 2009, from 2001 to 2002, and from 1990 to 1991. But even with strong economic-growth numbers well into 2019, it looks like demand for houses of historically large size may have finally peaked even before the 2020 recession and our current economic malaise. (Square footage in new multifamily construction has also increased.)

Housing Is Getting Less Affordable Read More »

Musk vs Twitter

Elon Musk Ambushes Twitter

In the ongoing saga of Musk vs. Twitter, we first heard that the iconic billionaire founder of X.com aka. Paypal, Tesla, SpaceX, Hyperloop, etc. started acquiring significant quantities of shares of Twitter. On March 14, 2022, he had a 5% stake in the company. By April 1, he had 9.13% of the total outstanding shares, valued at the time at $2.64 billion, making him the largest shareholder in the company.

Elon Musk Ambushes Twitter Read More »

Bitcoin

Can Ruthless Governments Make Crypto Worthless?

Why Governments Villainize Assets That Protect Against Inflation

For years, in an effort to drive down prices, gold was attacked as a “barbarous relic” that paid no interest. But it was the only financial asset that wasn’t simultaneously another person’s liability. When an asset is also a liability it’s always possible that the liable party will be unable (or unwilling) to make good on that liability. In that case, the asset becomes worthless. But if you hold physical gold it will always be worth something. The price may fluctuate wildly, but it will never be worth zero. Being a commodity with many real-world uses (in addition to just jewelry), gold also tends to maintain its value during both times of inflation and deflation, plus gold tends to appreciate faster than inflation in times of crisis.

For years it seemed that governments around the world wanted to discourage their citizens from owning gold (while simultaneously hoarding it for their own treasuries).  One reason for this seemingly duplicitous behavior is that without an alternative, citizens are forced to spend (and save) using the government-sanctioned currency. If you have the alternative of opting out of depreciating currencies most logical people will do so, once the benefits outweigh the costs.

Another reason governments dislike alternatives to the official currency is that alternatives reveal the true value of the government currency. Governments with perpetually high inflation rates like Argentina often will publish dubious “official” inflation rates in an effort to convince their populace that inflation isn’t as bad as their pocketbook tells them that it is. But with a non-shifting yardstick like gold, their lies become apparent. So they discourage gold ownership and thus leave people foolish enough to listen to their lies, defenseless to the ravages of inflation.

Now with the advent of cryptocurrencies governments have a new villain to demonize. It almost seems that gold has fallen out of favor and crypto has become the new gold. Millennials seem more likely to turn to modern alternatives like bitcoin rather than the antiquated (and time-tested) gold. And it is easy to see why. In recent years gold has remained relatively stable while crypto has skyrocketed.

Can Ruthless Governments Make Crypto Worthless? Read More »

The red line on the chart shows Illinois Sweet Crude oil prices adjusted for inflation in February 2022 dollars. The black line indicates the nominal price (in other words the price you would have actually paid at the time). The current price for a barrel of Illinois Crude Oil as of March 11, 2022 was $84.70, up significantly from recent lows.

In What Universe is $100+ Crude Oil Cheap?

Everyone knows that Gasoline and Crude oil are currently expensive right?  I recently updated several of our charts and when I got to the Crude Oil vs Gold chart I was in for a shock. According to that chart either Gold is expensive or Crude oil is cheap. Not as cheap as it was in 2020 but still historically cheap but it is actually simply approaching the long-term average ratio.

The thinking of the ratio is this… if the value of dollars is constantly changing the best way to tell if a commodity is expensive is to compare it to other commodities. Historically, gold has been money so what better commodity to compare to? 

Looking at the chart of Gold vs. Oil we see that oil is still relatively cheaper than gold. Now as we have said many times Gold is a Crisis hedge so in times of crisis, gold appreciates. Therefore, we would expect gold to currently be expensive and it is, but it is not currently at all-time highs. Read the Full updated Gold vs. Oil Article here.

In What Universe is $100+ Crude Oil Cheap? Read More »

Entity Extraction

What is Entity Extraction and Why Should You Care?

Entity extraction, aka. “entity recognition”, allows computer systems to grab chunks of data from documents and enter them into separate fields in a database. For instance, they can sort through emails, webpages, or even massive WikiLeaks documents and find names, places, addresses, phone numbers, or key phrases and sort them into useful databases.

Entity extraction uses Natural Language Processing (NLP) to find mentions of specific data and turn them into structured data. How this data is used can be either “good” or “bad,” depending on your frame of reference. Government agencies can use it to sort through massive quantities of data to track down terrorists. Advertisers can use it to target you with ads that you might be interested in and not show you advertisements that are just a waste of your time. And thieves and scammers can use it to find potential targets.

What is Entity Extraction and Why Should You Care? Read More »

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