gold

Gold- Barbarous Relic?

The Barbarous Relic Rides Again

 Gold has shown some resiliency in 2024. Recently, John Authers at Bloomberg published the following comparison of gold vs. the S&P 500. With all the hype around the magnificent gains in the stock market you might think that it has massively outperformed gold. But currently, one ounce of gold buy the same number of shares of the S&P 500 as in 1971 when Nixon severed the link between gold and the dollar.

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Bitcoin

Can Ruthless Governments Make Crypto Worthless?

Why Governments Villainize Assets That Protect Against Inflation

For years, in an effort to drive down prices, gold was attacked as a “barbarous relic” that paid no interest. But it was the only financial asset that wasn’t simultaneously another person’s liability. When an asset is also a liability it’s always possible that the liable party will be unable (or unwilling) to make good on that liability. In that case, the asset becomes worthless. But if you hold physical gold it will always be worth something. The price may fluctuate wildly, but it will never be worth zero. Being a commodity with many real-world uses (in addition to just jewelry), gold also tends to maintain its value during both times of inflation and deflation, plus gold tends to appreciate faster than inflation in times of crisis.

For years it seemed that governments around the world wanted to discourage their citizens from owning gold (while simultaneously hoarding it for their own treasuries).  One reason for this seemingly duplicitous behavior is that without an alternative, citizens are forced to spend (and save) using the government-sanctioned currency. If you have the alternative of opting out of depreciating currencies most logical people will do so, once the benefits outweigh the costs.

Another reason governments dislike alternatives to the official currency is that alternatives reveal the true value of the government currency. Governments with perpetually high inflation rates like Argentina often will publish dubious “official” inflation rates in an effort to convince their populace that inflation isn’t as bad as their pocketbook tells them that it is. But with a non-shifting yardstick like gold, their lies become apparent. So they discourage gold ownership and thus leave people foolish enough to listen to their lies, defenseless to the ravages of inflation.

Now with the advent of cryptocurrencies governments have a new villain to demonize. It almost seems that gold has fallen out of favor and crypto has become the new gold. Millennials seem more likely to turn to modern alternatives like bitcoin rather than the antiquated (and time-tested) gold. And it is easy to see why. In recent years gold has remained relatively stable while crypto has skyrocketed.

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The red line on the chart shows Illinois Sweet Crude oil prices adjusted for inflation in February 2022 dollars. The black line indicates the nominal price (in other words the price you would have actually paid at the time). The current price for a barrel of Illinois Crude Oil as of March 11, 2022 was $84.70, up significantly from recent lows.

In What Universe is $100+ Crude Oil Cheap?

Everyone knows that Gasoline and Crude oil are currently expensive right?  I recently updated several of our charts and when I got to the Crude Oil vs Gold chart I was in for a shock. According to that chart either Gold is expensive or Crude oil is cheap. Not as cheap as it was in 2020 but still historically cheap but it is actually simply approaching the long-term average ratio.

The thinking of the ratio is this… if the value of dollars is constantly changing the best way to tell if a commodity is expensive is to compare it to other commodities. Historically, gold has been money so what better commodity to compare to? 

Looking at the chart of Gold vs. Oil we see that oil is still relatively cheaper than gold. Now as we have said many times Gold is a Crisis hedge so in times of crisis, gold appreciates. Therefore, we would expect gold to currently be expensive and it is, but it is not currently at all-time highs. Read the Full updated Gold vs. Oil Article here.

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Oil vs Gold Chart

Which is Over Priced? Oil or Gold?

Was gold in a Bubble? Does the recent correction mean anything? With the value of the dollar constantly changing it is hard to tell what it all means. After all, can you imagine trying to build a house if every day when the workers arrived you gave them a different size ruler?

With everything from lumber to bitcoins skyrocketing in price (or the dollar devaluing), is there any way to tell the real value of something? How much is anything really worth? Is Oil overpriced? How about Gold? Is it overpriced? Is it cheap now that the price has come down? Looking at these commodities in the standard way, it’s often difficult to tell.

Which is Over Priced? Oil or Gold? Read More »

Oil Is Now More Volatile Than Bitcoin

You know that the oil markets have truly gone to the dogs when they are suddenly riskier than one of the world’s most volatile commodities: bitcoin. Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are synonymous with extreme bouts of volatility. However, it’s crude oil that is now earning that dubious distinction after exhibiting price swings wilder than even the leading cryptocurrency.

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Asteroid Mining

Asteroid Mining: Science Fiction or Science?

From the beginning of the genre of Science-Fiction, authors have dreamed of valiant spacemen and spacewomen (perhaps along with a few space pirates)  venturing out into the asteroid belt and mining precious minerals and bringing them back to a mineral starved earth. As with other Sci-fi inventions like StarTrek flip phones um… I mean communicators… science might be catching up with fiction. In the following article, Joao Peixe of Oilprice.com makes the case for the feasibility of mining the asteroid belt coming soon to a spaceport near you. ~Tim McMahon, editor.

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the Golden Opulence Sundae

From Ice Cream To Toilet Seats: The Most Bizarre Uses For Gold

Since the days of Cleopatra, humankind’s desire to use gold in ever more bizarre ways seems to have grown stronger by the day, with food often the primary target of this creativity. Today, gold appears to have conquered cuisine, with everything from gold-covered ice cream, to gold tacos, Indian tandoori and even 24-carat-covered gold steaks.

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4 Precious Metals to Consider

A variety of factors, including worries about the US dollar, inflation, the stock market and trade sanctions have led people to consider alternative investments for their future. Precious metals have always been an alternative due to their negative correlation to other markets. This means that often when stocks or currencies are falling precious metals are rising.  There are 4 precious metals to consider for investment and to secure retirement.

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Gold

Big Picture Update on Commodities & Precious Metals

In the following article, Gary Tanashian editor of Notes from the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH), has compiled a series of year end charts to help us get a handle on several sectors that relate to inflation. These sectors include Gold and other Precious Metals, Commodities (CRB Index) , Oil,  Natural Gas, Industrial Metals, Agriculture, Copper, Uranium and more. 

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