Economic Trends

Long-term trends grow from short term trends. We attampt to determine the short term trends and where they are pointing.

Free Market Capitalism improves Lives

The Results Are In: Free Market Capitalism Improves Lives

The credibility of free market capitalism is constantly threatened by critics who doubt its propensity for engendering prosperity. Its reputation is battered daily by the venomous pens of left-leaning writers advocating statist alternatives and their conservative allies touting economic nationalism. However, such narratives are frequently punctured by the piercing evidence of empirical data. Anticapitalism offers nothing beyond the appeal of emotional rhetoric.

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Crypto Goes Mainstream

Crypto Goes Mainstream

A lot is happening in the cryptoscape both from a regulatory and an innovation standpoint. Crypto has the potential to revolutionize the world as much as the Industrial Revolution, transistors, computers, or the internet did. And it is still in its infancy. But it is still possible for regulations to try to strangle the infant in its crib. But if that happens in one country, the innovation will simply move somewhere where it is appreciated.  This could be devastating for the economy of any country that gets this wrong and tries to stifle innovation. 

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BTC-ROC-5-24

Applying the ROC to Crypto

Our ROC system is very good at spotting major turning points in the market. So this month we adapted it to look at Bitcoin and Ethereum. While doing this we changed the look of how we do ROC, so we will be adapting the regular ROC charts to the new style as well. The advantage of this new look is that you can see the underlying index at the same time, so you can see exactly where the various signals kicked in and how it evolved from there. Also, I think the new look is much cleaner and less cluttered.

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Economic Education

Economic Education Has Become Economic Disinformation

Economics education fails to communicate the obvious fact that markets solve problems, not that they require that all problems have already been solved. That students struggle with understanding the use and value of models, and may draw the wrong conclusions when studying market forces in the abstract, is unfortunate but understandable. It is the duty of the economics instructor to make sure students do not get the wrong ideas—that they go home with a greater understanding of how economies and markets work. Education, after all, should be enlightening and provide the student with new knowledge.

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Crypto Scams and Opportunities

The Modern Day Wild West: Crypto Scams And Opportunities

We’ve all heard that the Crypto landscape is much like the “Wild West” with very little regulation. But along with risk comes opportunity. One of the reasons the “Wild West” was so wild was because “Boom towns” would spring up in the middle of nowhere due to the discovery of gold nearby. The gold would attract not only hard-working prospectors and pioneers, but also promoters, grifters, and outright crooks. Sometimes a “Lawman” such as Wyatt Earp would show up and try to enact some sort of system of Law and Order.

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Ticking Time Bomb

Global Debt Levels Are a Ticking Time Bomb

The relentless increase in global debt is an enormous problem for the economy. Public deficits are neither reserves for the private sector nor a tool for growth. Bloated public debt is a burden on the economy, making productivity stall, raising taxes, and crowding out financing for the private sector. With each passing year, the global debt figure climbs higher, the burdens grow heavier, and the risks loom larger. The world’s financial markets ignored the record-breaking increase in global debt levels to a staggering $313 trillion in 2023, which marked yet another worrying milestone.

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Fiscal Timebomb

America’s Fiscal Collapse Accelerates

In case you thought anybody in Washington was driving this thing, they are not.

It’s official: the Department of Treasury is now issuing debt at pandemic levels. It’s worth noting the pandemic record was double the previous record, which had stood for 231 years.

In raw numbers, the latest numbers for Q4 2023 show Treasury issued $7 trillion in new debt. For the entire year, it came to $23 trillion.

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Bitcoin- BTC

Crypto 2.0, A Whole New Ballgame

It turns out that Crypto is much more than just Bitcoin. In October 2008, when a person (or anonymous group) named Satoshi Nakamoto created the code for Bitcoin it opened the door to more than just a currency. It introduced the concept of a “Blockchain” to the world. Since then there have been literally thousands of Cryptos created, most of which ended up totally worthless. Some were simply jumping on the Blockchain bandwagon, just as companies added “.com” to their name back in the Dot com mania of the 1990s, people began creating mostly worthless cryptos in the 2010s. But not all the cryptos were worthless. Some were new currencies but others were new and innovative ways to use blockchain.

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Argentina Inflation

Argentina Sees First Monthly Budget Surplus in 12 Years

Argentina’s Javier Milei is racking up some solid wins, with the fiscal basket case seeing its first monthly budget surplus in 12 years. Apparently, it took Milei just nine and a half weeks to balance a budget that was projected at 5% of GDP under the previous government. In US terms, he turned a 1.2 trillion-dollar annual deficit into a 400 billion surplus. In 9 and a half weeks.

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Lincoln Money

America’s Fiat Money Gestapo: The Untold History of the Secret Service

There is an untold story in American monetary history. Some are reluctant even to discuss it. I’m referring to the US Secret Service’s very own role in the destruction of sound money in America.
As constitutional, sound money in the form of physical gold and silver coins—whether minted privately or not—became an annoying impediment to expanding the size and power of the federal government, central planners began circulating unbacked paper proxies and formed a Gestapo-like police agency to enforce the scheme.
Founded in 1865, toward the tail end of the American Civil War, the Secret Service originated as a branch of the US Treasury Department.

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