Oil

The red line on the chart shows Illinois Sweet Crude oil prices adjusted for inflation in February 2022 dollars. The black line indicates the nominal price (in other words the price you would have actually paid at the time). The current price for a barrel of Illinois Crude Oil as of March 11, 2022 was $84.70, up significantly from recent lows.

In What Universe is $100+ Crude Oil Cheap?

Everyone knows that Gasoline and Crude oil are currently expensive right?  I recently updated several of our charts and when I got to the Crude Oil vs Gold chart I was in for a shock. According to that chart either Gold is expensive or Crude oil is cheap. Not as cheap as it was in 2020 but still historically cheap but it is actually simply approaching the long-term average ratio.

The thinking of the ratio is this… if the value of dollars is constantly changing the best way to tell if a commodity is expensive is to compare it to other commodities. Historically, gold has been money so what better commodity to compare to? 

Looking at the chart of Gold vs. Oil we see that oil is still relatively cheaper than gold. Now as we have said many times Gold is a Crisis hedge so in times of crisis, gold appreciates. Therefore, we would expect gold to currently be expensive and it is, but it is not currently at all-time highs. Read the Full updated Gold vs. Oil Article here.

In What Universe is $100+ Crude Oil Cheap? Read More »

Oil vs Gold Chart

Which is Over Priced? Oil or Gold?

Was gold in a Bubble? Does the recent correction mean anything? With the value of the dollar constantly changing it is hard to tell what it all means. After all, can you imagine trying to build a house if every day when the workers arrived you gave them a different size ruler?

With everything from lumber to bitcoins skyrocketing in price (or the dollar devaluing), is there any way to tell the real value of something? How much is anything really worth? Is Oil overpriced? How about Gold? Is it overpriced? Is it cheap now that the price has come down? Looking at these commodities in the standard way, it’s often difficult to tell.

Which is Over Priced? Oil or Gold? Read More »

Cutting Edge

The Death Of U.S. Shale Has Been Greatly Exaggerated

The current year marks the 15th anniversary of the U.S. shale boom, a period in which fracking technology across such states as Texas, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Wyoming helped establish the nation as a top oil and gas producer. Unfortunately, high costs of production compared with conventional drilling has led to the sector consistently printing red ink and resulted in considerable destruction of shareholder value. The Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent oil price crash has led to investors souring on the industry further, credit becoming harder to come by, and a cross-section of Wall Street calling the end to the sector.

The Death Of U.S. Shale Has Been Greatly Exaggerated Read More »

Oil Majors That Bet Big On Renewables

Big Oil has frequently been chided for merely trying to burnish its green credentials, and so far, it has done little to convince us that it is truly moving forward to greenness. Despite the much-vaunted megatrend involving the global electrification drive and shift to renewable energy, the most ambitious pledges by Big Oil to pursue net-zero agendas remain weak at best.

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World Oil Production

Oil Demand Impacts Foreign Exchange Rates

To say that the past year has been an extraordinary period for the global oil market would be an understatement. Entering into 2020, the commodity was still feeling the impact of the late 2019 drone attack on a Saudi Aramco oil processing facility. In early 2020, oil prices were highly volatile in the aftermath of the killing of Iran’s Qasem Soleimani.

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Energy Sector SPDR Fund

Bulls Beware: A Dark Cloud Is Forming Over Oil Markets

Bullish sentiment appears to have returned to the stock markets with a vengeance. In a historic rally that has taken even die-hard bulls by surprise, the S&P 500 has managed to claw back all of its 2020 losses, taking just 53 sessions for the index to fully restore the nearly $10T in value it shed in an epic bear market. The oil markets have been nearly as impressive.

Bulls Beware: A Dark Cloud Is Forming Over Oil Markets Read More »

Oil Rig

Oil Goes from Zero to $35 in a Month, But is it Enough?

Within a month, the U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate recorded two first-of-a-kind events. First, it fell below zero on April 20. Then, it soared up so quickly it is about to book its best month ever. Still, many analysts and other observers remain wary of any premature optimism. Bankruptcies in the U.S. shale patch are rising. Seventeen companies have already filed for Chapter 11 protection since the start of the year, the FT reported. Still, many more bankruptcies are on the way, with Rystad Energy estimating that as many as 73 shale drillers could be forced into bankruptcy by the end of the year.

Oil Goes from Zero to $35 in a Month, But is it Enough? Read More »

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