Economic Trends

Long-term trends grow from short term trends. We attampt to determine the short term trends and where they are pointing.

Argentina Inflation

Argentina Sees First Monthly Budget Surplus in 12 Years

Argentina’s Javier Milei is racking up some solid wins, with the fiscal basket case seeing its first monthly budget surplus in 12 years. Apparently, it took Milei just nine and a half weeks to balance a budget that was projected at 5% of GDP under the previous government. In US terms, he turned a 1.2 trillion-dollar annual deficit into a 400 billion surplus. In 9 and a half weeks.

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Lincoln Money

America’s Fiat Money Gestapo: The Untold History of the Secret Service

There is an untold story in American monetary history. Some are reluctant even to discuss it. I’m referring to the US Secret Service’s very own role in the destruction of sound money in America.
As constitutional, sound money in the form of physical gold and silver coins—whether minted privately or not—became an annoying impediment to expanding the size and power of the federal government, central planners began circulating unbacked paper proxies and formed a Gestapo-like police agency to enforce the scheme.
Founded in 1865, toward the tail end of the American Civil War, the Secret Service originated as a branch of the US Treasury Department.

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Argentina Inflation 12-2023

Argentina Mulls Dollarization- What is it?

As the new President of Argentina mulls the idea of dollarization to reduce Argentinian inflation we look at “What is Dollarization? ” and “Will it help Argentina?”.
According to Reuters, “Argentina’s annual inflation rate hit 161% in November… the monthly inflation was rate 12.8% in November alone”. Argentina’s new President Javier Milei campaigned on the promise of fixing Argentina’s economic crisis, and on Tuesday his government announced a more than 50% devaluation of the local peso currency plus sharp spending cuts. One of Milei’s ideas for reducing inflation is “Dollarization”. So, what is Dollarization? And how does it work?

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Federal Receipts

If the Economy Is So Great, Why Are Tax Revenues So Weak?

It seems pretty obvious that when the economy is weak individual’s earnings go down, and unemployment goes up, consequently tax revenues go down. After all, if people aren’t making any money they can’t give it to the government. So, it seems logical to ask about falling tax revenues and rising deficits. In today’s article, Ryan McMaken looks at the current situation.

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Israel vs Palestine

Could a Hamas vs. Israel War Trigger a Worldwide Recession?

According to a recent article by Bloomberg entitled, Wider War in Middle East Could Tip the World Economy Into Recession, it is a distinct possibility. The article presents 3 possible scenarios, i.e., Confined War, Proxy War, and Direct War. Confined War Scenario In the confined war scenario conflict is limited to Gaza, Israel, and the Palestinian

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Soft Landing

The Dangerous Myth of a “Soft Landing”

Despite elevated inflation, the United States government is spending more than ever, which means consuming more units of issued currency. Tim Congdon at the Institute of International Monetary Research shows how the inflationary burst was directly linked to broad money growth due to rising government deficit spending. Market participants and economists like to believe that the central bank will manage the economy as if it were a car. The current optimism about the U.S. economy reminds us of the same sentiment in 2007 when no one seemed to worry about rising imbalances.

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Jordan Peterson on China's Social Credit System

The Crux of China’s Problems

China is risking more than a real estate collapse. China has turned its back on what created the Chinese Economic Miracle in the first place. Everyone is pontificating about China’s real estate bubble and whether Chairman Xi will do enough to stimulate the economy. Even though the media admits that so far a loose monetary policy hasn’t helped, they still believe that more of the magic cure-all monetary elixir will somehow eventually work.

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BRICS Common Currency

Will a New BRICS Currency Dethrone the U.S. Dollar?

At their 2023 summit in South Africa, BRICS countries committed to study the feasibility of a new common currency. Russia is especially interested in alternatives to the Dollar since his invasion of the Ukraine resulted in the Dollar, SWIFT, and international finance was used as a weapon against Russia. In today’s article Daniel Lascalle looks at the viability of an alternative BRICS currency.

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European Energy Crisis

The European Energy Crisis May Be Back Soon

Unfortunately, the European Union bureaucrats declared the end of the energy crisis as if it were the result of decisive policy action, but the reality is that the energy problem in the EU was only diminished by purely external factors: a very mild winter and the decline in global commodity prices due to the central bank rate hikes. Thus, the energy crisis remains, and the problems of security of supply and affordability of the system persist.

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Inverted Yield Curve 2023

Deepest Yield Curve Inversion Since 1981

Mark Thornton and Ryan McMaken discuss the current yield curve inversion. The U.S. Treasury funds deficit spending by issuing debt instruments with a range of maturities. Treasury Bills have maturities from one month to one year. Treasury Notes have maturities from two to ten years. And long-term debt is issued as Treasury Bonds with 20- and 30-year maturities. The yield curve is created by comparing interest rates between ten-year debt to 3-month debt. Logically, long-term debt should require a higher interest rate than short-term debt simply because a lot can happen in ten years so there is more uncertainty, i.e., risk.

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