Inverted Yield Curve 2023

Deepest Yield Curve Inversion Since 1981

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Mark Thornton and Ryan McMaken discuss the current yield curve inversion. The U.S. Treasury funds deficit spending by issuing debt instruments with a range of maturities. Treasury Bills have maturities from one month to one year. Treasury Notes have maturities from two to ten years. And long-term debt is issued as Treasury Bonds with 20- and 30-year maturities. The yield curve is created by comparing interest rates between ten-year debt to 3-month debt. Logically, long-term debt should require a higher interest rate than short-term debt simply because a lot can happen in ten years so there is more uncertainty, i.e., risk.

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Crumbling Fractional Reserve Bank

Is this the End of Fractional Reserve Banking?

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In the following article Douglas French looks at the shaky Fractional Reserve Banking system that has been around since it was created by the Banking Act of 1933 (aka. the Glass-Steagall Act), which also created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Will Fractional Reserve Banking survive to celebrate its Centennial anniversary?  Recent trends in Idaho (of all places) could spell the end of fractional reserve banking (but not the FED).

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global monetary hegemony

A Guide to Good Money

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Modern money, having now become a key tool of government economic policy and a source of massive tax revenues, has strayed far from its original purpose. This is doubly regrettable, as the better money functions at an individual level in satisfying demand for quality, the better it is for economic prosperity and freedom.
This book presents how modern money works both in the domestic economy and globally, outlining the essence of what makes good money. How does modern money differ from this ideal?

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Science vs Technology

Does Science Shape Economic Progress?

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We might think that scientific breakthroughs are necessary in order for us to have technological advancement. But as Lipton Matthews shows in this article, that isn’t necessarily the case. He says, “history has shown that science often lags technology” but “advancements in science propel technological growth.” One key concept to understanding this article is the difference between Science and Technology. The goal of Science is knowledge and understanding. But the goal of Technology is to mold the environment. Technology is the practical application of science.

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Natural Monopoly

There is No Such Thing as a “Natural” Monopoly

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The for many years telephone services and electricity were considered “natural monopolies” and competition was prohibited by the government or you could say the dominant player was protected by the government. But then in January of 1982, the government reversed its longstanding protection of Bell Industries and broke it up into a bunch of “Baby Bells” that could compete against each other. And along came cell phones and the rest is history.

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Central Bank Digital Currency

Is it Really Paranoid to Worry about a Central Bank Digital Currency?

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Recently there has been talk about the FED creating a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). A CBDC is similar to a cryptocurrency, except that its value is set by the central bank and equivalent to the country’s fiat currency. Some countries like Venezuela have already tried a National Cryptocurrency in an effort to solve their inflation problem, but since the same guys are pulling the levers, it worked out about as well as you would expect.

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Fifth Third Bank Louisville

Commercial Banks Suffer Along With Commercial Real Estate

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This article looks at the current abysmal state of the commercial real estate market and its effects on companies like Blackstone, Fifth Third Bank, and Union Bank. With commercial real estate selling as low as $9 /sf, these companies are taking a big hit to profits as they try to sell excess real estate for less than half of what they paid for it just a few years ago. Some companies like Brookfield are simply walking away from the properties in places like downtown Los Angeles.

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NYSE Weekly 4-26-23

Big Move Coming in Stocks

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The stock market appears to be approaching an “inflection point.” Mr. Market is going to have to make up his mind… whether this is going to turn into a bullish or bearish market. At this point, it could still go either way, but the big caveat is that when it moves, the move will probably be dramatic. Looking at the following chart, we can see the two blue short-term support and resistance lines are forming a “pennant” formation. Generally, when that happens, it is like a spring being coiled up as the index gets compressed into the two lines. When it finally breaks free in one direction or the other, it is often explosive.

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