Oil

The Technical Failure That Could Clear The Oil Glut In A Matter Of Weeks

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The following article by Cyril Widdershoven of Oilprice.com takes a look at the recent technical glitch that could cut Saudi production by as much as 900,000 barrels per day. Many Middle East oil fields are aging and are experiencing technical challenges. Creation of the Manifa oil field was a technological wonder of the modern world due to its abundance of marine life and unique structure. As of today Manifa is reporting that the water injection issue is not currently affecting oil production

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NYMEX Crude Oil

Is A Big Move In Oil Prices Due?

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On November 30th 2016, Bloomberg trumpeted the following headline, OPEC Confounds Skeptics, Agrees to First Oil Cuts in 8 Years. On the day before, (i.e. November 29th) oil prices had plunged 2.5% and the NYMEX Oil ETF was trading at $11.34 and the news drove the price up to $13.05 by January 6th, 2017 where it peaked and it’s been downhill ever since.

Was this a case of “Buy the Rumor Sell the News”?  Not quite since it did climb for a couple of months before reality set in, but the OPEC deal was doomed to fail pretty much from the beginning. First of all, U.S. Shale Oil wasn’t part of the deal and secondly the targets were set at previous peak production so there really weren’t any “cuts” simply limits to future growth. After falling to $9.89 on June 21st the price has rebounded a bit moving back above support so we could easily see a move to the resistance line or above. So have we seen the bottom and is this the beginning of  a new rally?    Or is this a counter-trend rally to the top of the channel or simply a fake and the beginning of a correction to the downside? In today’s post, Brian Noble looks at the question, “Is a big move in Oil Prices Due?”~ Tim McMahon, editor. 

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Where Will Oil Prices Be in 2020?

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The oil industry is notoriously cyclical. Perhaps because it takes so long to bring new supply on-line. As prices rise and the industry blossoms the oil machinery kicks into gear. Independants locate the oil and the fields get bought up by majors who bring it into production, this boosts supply. And then when the supply hits the market, prices go down, small over-leveraged players get squeezed and then go bankrupt, and exploration dries up. Eventually, this causes supply to slacken and prices begin rising again. And the cycle continues. In today’s article we’ll look at where oil prices could be 3 years on as increased demand meets Saudi production cuts and shale-oil production increases.

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Big Oil Betting On Electric Vehicles?

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I’ve been enamored with electric vehicles since long before they were commercially available. Way back in 1975, Mechanix Illustrated featured the “Urba Town car” and offered plans to build your own Electric Car. It required removing the body from a VW bug, and building a new cool looking body out of fiberglass. I spent a whopping $20, (which was much more valuable back then, not just because of inflation but because I was a poor college student without a job). It even had an option of adding a generator and making it a hybrid. Unfortunately, I never got around to using the plans but over the years I’ve enjoyed reading about quite a few successful conversions of various vehicles and I followed Tesla’s rise to fame in the electric vehicle market with marked enthusiasm hoping to one day, own one myself. Well, today Jon LeSage of Oilprice.com tells us that the electric vehicle may have finally reached the Tipping Point and other experts saying “By 2020 there will be over 120 different models of EV across the spectrum,” . ~Tim McMahon, editor.

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Oil Tanker

Is a Second OPEC Cut In The Cards?

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In November 2016 with great fanfare OPEC announced a cut in production in an effort to drive up prices in light of the massive global supply glut partially the result of U.S. shale oil flooding the market. This supply glut had put every Oil producing country in fiscal straits (since most of the governments derive a substantial portion of their revenues from oil). It also squeezed the private U.S. shale oil producers who had racked up significant debt prior to the oil price crash. In the months since we have published several articles pertaining to the price of oil. Initially OPEC’s production cut drove up oil prices but in Oil Prices High Enough to Spark Shale Rebound we showed that Shale production was capping the oil price gains.

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The Oil War Just Getting Started

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Let the battle begin. OPEC is trying to cut production and drive prices up while U.S. Shale Oil producers are seeing the increase in oil prices as an opportunity to get back in the game. More oil rigs are coming on line in the U.S. accompanied by increased drilling activity. BP’s 2017 Energy outlook is saying there is plenty of oil until at least 2050 but this includes an estimate that oil demand will slow in the coming years.

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Oil Prices Running Out Of Reasons To Rally?

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Oil prices faltered at the start of the second week of the year, as fears set in about a rapid rebound in U.S. shale production. For the better part of two months, optimism surrounding the OPEC deal has buoyed oil prices, but bullish sentiment from speculators are showing early signs of abating, raising the possibility that the oil rally is running out of steam.

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Oil Rally Reaching Limit

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Oil prices have rallied by about 50 percent from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But the rally could be reaching its limits, at least temporarily, as persistent oversupply and the prospect of new shale production caps any potential price increase.

U.S. oil production has steadily lost ground over the past two quarters, with production falling more than a half million barrels per day since hitting a peak at nearly 9.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April 2015. American oil companies have gutted their budgets and have put off drilling plans, with many projecting absolute declines in 2016.

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