Economic Trends

Long-term trends grow from short term trends. We attampt to determine the short term trends and where they are pointing.

Global Tariffs

Is Trump Right About Tariffs?

One of Trump’s big talking points in this election cycle was tariffs. So, what are tariffs and are they a good thing?

Tariffs or “import duties” have existed since the country began in the 1700s. Initially, they were imposed by Britain on imports to the Colonies. One memorable instance is the 1767 Townshend Revenue Act, which eventually resulted in the Boston Tea Party. (But not for the reasons you might think.)…

For many years economists believed, as Janet Yellen says, “if a company wants to export to the United States at below-market prices, we should buy the goods and send a thank-you note” but recently economists have begun rethinking that idea. What if those cheap imports last long enough to destroy all domestic production? Then you are at the mercy of foreign producers and all those domestic jobs moved overseas…

“When considering trade policy, it is important to recognize the difference between using tariffs to tilt the international playing field in favor of American businesses and using them as a negotiating tool…

Tariffs can help level the playing field when currency exchange rates aren’t doing the job they should be. Interestingly, back in 2005, it was none other than Democrat Chuck Schumer who led the charge to impose a 35% tariff on China…

Is Trump Right About Tariffs? Read More »

M2 Annual Percent Change 2024

How Much is the Money Supply Growing?

The “M2 money supply” includes liquid assets such as Cash, Checking Accounts, Savings Accounts, CDs, etc. 

Looking at the chart below we can see that the M2 money supply increased gradually for many years until the pandemic when it shot up drastically, and then in 2022 the FED significantly decreased the money supply for the first time. But over the last year or so it appears to be resuming its previous uptrend.

How Much is the Money Supply Growing? Read More »

Modern Monetary Theory

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)

Transferring goods from the private sphere to the public sphere is not the harmless conversion that MMT proponents and other lovers of big government imply. When they say that they only want to make a few more goods public, what they’re not saying is that those goods will likely, if not certainly, be used to serve far fewer consumers and to satisfy far less urgent and valuable wants.

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Canada Economic Crisis

Canada’s Economic Crisis

Canada’s standard of living is on track for its worst decline in 40 years, according to a new study by Canada’s Fraser Institute.

The study compared the three worst periods of decline in Canada in the last 40 years — the 1989 recession, the 2008 global financial crisis, and this post-pandemic era.

They found that unlike the previous recessions, Canada is not recovering this time. Something broke.
One in three Canadians work for the government, making 30% more salary than the average taxpayer. Roughly 10% of Canadians are on welfare.

Canada’s Economic Crisis Read More »

Bitcoin Trendline July 2024

Crypto: Crash or Opportunity?

Everyone knows that the Crypto market is volatile. And we got another dose of that on the 4th of July. But rather than fireworks, Crypto markets crashed. The year 2024, started out very bullish for Crypto, with Bitcoin (BTC) up sharply… partly due to BTC getting approval for ETFs and partly due to the expected halving which would cut supply. But so far this year, the truism “Buy the rumor, Sell the news” has held for the Bitcoin halving.

Crypto: Crash or Opportunity? Read More »

Free Market Capitalism improves Lives

The Results Are In: Free Market Capitalism Improves Lives

The credibility of free market capitalism is constantly threatened by critics who doubt its propensity for engendering prosperity. Its reputation is battered daily by the venomous pens of left-leaning writers advocating statist alternatives and their conservative allies touting economic nationalism. However, such narratives are frequently punctured by the piercing evidence of empirical data. Anticapitalism offers nothing beyond the appeal of emotional rhetoric.

The Results Are In: Free Market Capitalism Improves Lives Read More »

Crypto Goes Mainstream

Crypto Goes Mainstream

A lot is happening in the cryptoscape both from a regulatory and an innovation standpoint. Crypto has the potential to revolutionize the world as much as the Industrial Revolution, transistors, computers, or the internet did. And it is still in its infancy. But it is still possible for regulations to try to strangle the infant in its crib. But if that happens in one country, the innovation will simply move somewhere where it is appreciated.  This could be devastating for the economy of any country that gets this wrong and tries to stifle innovation. 

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