It’s tempting to believe the Bitcoin bull cycle has ended. Crypto Twitter is full of claims that the infamous four-year cycle topped in October 2025, right on schedule. And at first glance, price action seems to validate that theory: Bitcoin stalled near all-time highs and pulled back sharply, igniting debate about whether the boom has run its course.
Based on the popular 4-year cycle theory, we published the following chart back in July, projecting an October top. And BTC landed almost exactly in the small target zone and then moved slightly higher, forming the recent top. So, if the Bitcoin Cycle theory still holds, this is a good place for a top. But…
When everyone sees a top, it rarely is.
Markets have a habit of embarrassing the largest number of people possible. In other words, if everyone expects a top, the market often pretends to comply—only to do the opposite.
This dynamic is sometimes referred to as the self-fulfilling prophecy trap. Traders expect a cycle peak, so some begin selling, creating weakness that looks like a high. That can snowball into a real collapse, but it can also fail spectacularly if there are enough long-term bulls who see it as a buying opportunity.
It aligns with the old Max Pain Theory—markets tend to move in whatever direction causes the most emotional and financial discomfort for the greatest number of retail investors (while insiders reap the benefits). And right now, maximum pain could actually be another leg higher, squeezing short sellers and allowing Wall Street Pros to buy at a discount.
Liquidity, Not Euphoria, Stopped the Rally
Crypto doesn’t run on vibes—it runs on liquidity. And the recent government shutdown choked liquidity just as the Federal Reserve cut rates, resulting in a confusing mixed signal. While rate cuts are typically bullish, Jerome Powell’s tone signaled caution, suggesting the December cut was “not a foregone conclusion.” Markets heard hawkish ambiguity, not support.
And if there is one thing markets despise, it’s uncertainty.
When federal spending resumes, liquidity will return. Historically, restart periods after shutdowns inject a surge of capital back into the system. That creates conditions not for collapse, but for expansion.
Sentiment Doesn’t Look Like a Top
True cycle tops rarely form in fear. They form in euphoria, typically with the Fear & Greed Index above 90, signaling extreme greed. In October 2025, Bitcoin barely touched the low-70s. Today, the CoinMarketCap index sits around 21—deep in fear territory.
Bottoms form in fear. Tops form in mania. If this is a “top,” it’s the least euphoric one in crypto history.
Capital Is Positioning Quietly
Rather than exuberance, we’re seeing strategic rotation. As we said in yesterday’s Bitcoin “IPO” Phase article, long-term Bitcoin holders have taken profits—not because they believe the cycle is over, but because after years of illiquid conditions, there is finally enough depth in the market to unwind portions of billion-dollar positions.
Flows also tell an evolving story: Asia led selling last month, but the baton has passed to U.S. traders as the dollar strengthens and government liquidity dried up. Yet beneath the surface, a major bullish signal is brewing—stablecoin inflows into Binance are exploding, hitting roughly $73 billion in 30 days, the largest spike ever recorded. That’s not exit liquidity. That’s dry powder waiting for deployment.
Looking at flows into and out of Digital Assets by country, we see that this is not a global problem but a U.S. problem. Global liquidity is increasing; it’s just U.S. liquidity that has dried up.
Note that only the U.S. and Sweden are selling; everyone else is buying. And Sweden has been selling all year. That points to a U.S. liquidity problem, not a global consensus.
Signals vs. Narrative
Our BTC ROC model issued a sell signal on August 16, 2025, when Bitcoin was $115,957. Price peaked weeks later near $126,110 before cooling off. So, caution was certainly warranted. The question remains, is this “the big one” at the end of the 4-year cycle, or is it simply another pull-back/consolidation before a major blow-off top?
Annie from Trade, Travel Chill is suggesting that BTC could see a pullback to $85k, but in the Cryptoverse, that is still a minor setback. From here, we see three possible scenarios.
- We’ve already seen the bottom just below $100k.
- We see a test to the $85k region and then the bull resumes.
- A break below April lows would be a “lower low” and indicate a possible confirmation that the 4-year cycle has ended and we are in for a year or so corrective phase, with possible losses of 60+%.
Although our BTC ROC is still in Sell territory the ETH ROC says BUY.
Conclusion
If this were the euphoric end of a four-year cycle, we’d see FOMO, not fear. The greed index only reached 74 and quickly fell into fear territory; that isn’t the sign of a major top. The general populace still ignores crypto despite very positive legislation, legalized crypto funds, and companies becoming crypto treasuries, which isn’t the sign of a major top either. Liquidity will return, stablecoins are stacking, and uncertainty—not exhaustion—has been the dominant theme. Prices could easily consolidate here or at $85k for a month or more before resuming the uptrend.
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