Given the favorable tailwinds for equities, this week’s video explores a prudent question:
What Advice Would Jesse Livermore Have For Investors In 2017?
Stocks Still Have Strong Low-Inflation/Low-Rates/Improving-Economy Tailwind Read More »
In this article Chris Ciovacco looks at a variety of indicators to determine the probability that the market will take a dive in the near future. He’ll look at New Highs vs. New Lows, and compare market vulnerability of the 2011 market compared to today.
Low Probability Market Will Crash Read More »
Wall Street has done it again and today I’m writing to warn you about a hot new financial instrument backed by derivatives that has taken Wall Street by storm. And the aftermath may be just as devastating to investors who are unprepared.
History suggests that investors cling to hope all the way down. As this chart of the average holding period for a NYSE stock illustrates, investors actually turn up the hope and cling most tenaciously to their shares in bear markets. In bull markets they may espouse the buy and hold approach, but the chart shows that they don’t actually practice what they preach.
Why Investors Cling to Hope Amid Stock Market Turmoil Read More »
You have a 50/50 chance of winning $10,000. or getting zero. What do you do? What if you had a 50/50 chance of losing $10,000?
Improving Your Investments with Decision Theory (Risk Aversion) Read More »
Stocks do not drop like a lead balloon for no reason during a financial crisis. For instance in both 2001 and 2008, the economy experienced a significant contraction. So what are the odds for a recession now?
Bear Markets And Economic Contractions: 2001/2008 vs. 2015 Read More »
Any data that tells us to keep an open mind about better than expected outcomes must be confirmed by the stock market; something that has not happened yet. For example, if the stock market is to rally for the next few months in a surprising manner, that is not possible as long as the S&P 500 fails to make a higher high above 2,134. Our market model does not make decisions based on what “may or may not happen”. Therefore, the only real value to the table and video above is to help us remain open to and prepared for all outcomes (bullish and bearish). A few reasonable S&P 500 guideposts relative to improving bullish probabilities include 2096, 2107, 2116, and 2134. Each push above a guidepost level improves the odds for the bullish case. Below these levels, the expression “the market has some work to do” applies.
Reasons To Remain Open To Bullish Outcomes For Stocks Read More »
Most economists and stock market participants believe that FED policy can exhibit a tremendous amount of power over the movement of the markets and market participants perception of the future of that policy can affect the market in the short run. The major exception is Robert Prechter who believes that “monetary policy doesn’t have a reliable effect on the stock market.” He recommends that you Don’t Get Ruined by This Popular Investment Myth. But in today’s post Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management looks at whether the FED could trigger a slide in the stock market. ~Tim McMahon, editor.
Could The Fed Trigger A Deflationary Slide In Stocks? Read More »
On September 19-21, 2014, in San Antonio, Texas, top experts from Casey Research—as well as many well-regarded guest speakers—gathered to discuss the most important issues facing our economy today and presented on how to position yourself to thrive in the year ahead. If you weren’t able to attend the 2014 Casey Research Summit you missed the following projections on the future of Asia.
The Asian Age of Transformation Read More »
While the Federal Reserve has laid out specific plans to end their quantitative easing (QE) program, a new season of QE may be getting ready to kick-off across the pond. From Reuters:
The euro fell broadly on Wednesday, hitting a 19-month low against the Swiss franc, as speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will resort to quantitative easing was fueled by yet more bad news from the eurozone…ECB chief Mario Draghi fueled speculation that monetary policy would be further loosened in the eurozone over the weekend by saying the central bank would use “all the available instruments” to deal with the threat of deflation at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson Hole. Developments on Wednesday only worsened the picture for the eurozone: data showed German consumer morale fell for the first time in 1-1/2 years, while Italy’s economy minister said the country must cut its growth forecast.
QE Ending Or Just Getting Started? Read More »
