Long-term trends grow from short term trends. We attampt to determine the short term trends and where they are pointing.
Here’s what you will learn:
How Europe’s biggest economies are screeching to a halt
Currency devaluation’s role in the developing global crisis
How the self-reinforcing aspect of deflation is already apparent in commodities trading
Why the top 1% of earners are in for a rude awakening
The hair-raising future for U.S. stocks
Why Europe is Going to Get a Lot Worse Before It Gets Better Read More »
Today, a violent Colombia is just a Hollywood fiction. The real Colombia has one of the fastest-growing economies in Latin America. Some remote areas are still no man’s land. But the drug wars and civil conflict that started in the 1960s and tormented much of the country have wound down. I’d feel much safer walking down a street in Medellín tonight than I would in many parts of New York City, Chicago, or Washington, D.C. Plus, unlike most Latin American countries, Colombia welcomes and respects foreign investment.
It’s clear to anyone who has been there recently that Colombia has turned a page to a better future. The country has immense charm and plenty of opportunity for investors. That was certainly my impression after visiting earlier this year.
The End of the Longest Running War in the Americas Read More »
The whole of economic life is a mixture of creative and distributive activities. Some of what we ‘‘earn’’ derives from what is created out of nothing and adds to the total available for all to enjoy. But some of it merely takes what would otherwise be available to others and therefore comes at their expense.
The Balance Between Creating and Taking Read More »
History suggests that investors cling to hope all the way down. As this chart of the average holding period for a NYSE stock illustrates, investors actually turn up the hope and cling most tenaciously to their shares in bear markets. In bull markets they may espouse the buy and hold approach, but the chart shows that they don’t actually practice what they preach.
Why Investors Cling to Hope Amid Stock Market Turmoil Read More »
You have a 50/50 chance of winning $10,000. or getting zero. What do you do? What if you had a 50/50 chance of losing $10,000?
Improving Your Investments with Decision Theory (Risk Aversion) Read More »
Today we will look at some other trends making their mark on the current direction of Europe’s markets. Should you invest in the Eurozone, or should you bide your time? Let’s take a look at what various experts across the board are saying.
3 Powerful Trends Influencing Europe’s Financial Market Recovery Read More »
Stocks do not drop like a lead balloon for no reason during a financial crisis. For instance in both 2001 and 2008, the economy experienced a significant contraction. So what are the odds for a recession now?
Bear Markets And Economic Contractions: 2001/2008 vs. 2015 Read More »
Any data that tells us to keep an open mind about better than expected outcomes must be confirmed by the stock market; something that has not happened yet. For example, if the stock market is to rally for the next few months in a surprising manner, that is not possible as long as the S&P 500 fails to make a higher high above 2,134. Our market model does not make decisions based on what “may or may not happen”. Therefore, the only real value to the table and video above is to help us remain open to and prepared for all outcomes (bullish and bearish). A few reasonable S&P 500 guideposts relative to improving bullish probabilities include 2096, 2107, 2116, and 2134. Each push above a guidepost level improves the odds for the bullish case. Below these levels, the expression “the market has some work to do” applies.
Reasons To Remain Open To Bullish Outcomes For Stocks Read More »
The bell is tolling for Alexis [Tsipras]. European leaders from all sides have abandoned him as he burns through every last bridge that was once in place. His only meeting of importance during this crucial week of negotiation is with Putin – which clearly does not inspire any confidence for a near-term resolution.
It is actually amazing that we have not seen any of the left-leaning party leaders from the rest of Europe running to Tsipras’ side as he truculently engages his paymasters. Where are all these European anti-austarians? Of course they are hiding from the Germans, hoping not to receive the same fate as Alexis. So there he sits, alone and under his last Soviet-held bridge, just like Hemingway’s Robert Jordan. He is waiting to cause just a little more damage before his time is up.
In the end, there is no question that the Germans have executed a near flawless plan to humiliate and vilify Greece. The Greeks now stand as poster children for European profligacy. And they are being paraded through every town square in the EU, in shackles, as the bell tolls near the gallows for their leader.
Greece Should “Shoot the Dog and Sell the Farm” Read More »
There’s this crazy talk about how airlines are some kind of public utility that should only be allowed an “acceptable” profit margin so you and I can continue to fly coast-to-coast for $300 round trip… This is the sort of thinking that gets us in trouble, though. This is what gets entire industries nationalized, which is what happens when some congressman has his flight canceled and starts talking about how the airline industry is in the “national interest.”
Should Airlines Be Stopped From Making Windfall Profits? Read More »
