Long-term trends grow from short term trends. We attampt to determine the short term trends and where they are pointing.
So far in 2022, the S&P 500 peaked at 4,818.62 on January 4th and reached a low of 3,674.84 on June 17th. That is a -1,143.78 point loss or -23.74% in 5 months. If that is the end of it, it will be considered a “mild correction”. Only 3 of the seven previous corrections lasted 5 months or less, while the other four lasted much longer.
How Low Can the S&P 500 Go? Read More »
When you think of drones, you think of harmless toys or maybe Amazon package delivery systems. But with terrorism on the rise, terrorists might turn to drones to deliver a different kind of package. And dealing with that threat might be difficult for law enforcement, after all, how do you shoot a drone out of the sky without injuring bystanders? Although no one was injured, at the time, the French began becoming concerned about drone attacks in early 2015, when drones flew over the presidential palace and a restricted military site.
France’s War on Terror Uses Eagles to Catch Drones Read More »
We’ve been saying for a while that the FED’s been “behind the curve”. First they said inflation was “transitory” and nothing to worry about (while we said to start worrying). Then they said they would start tightening “later”. And finally it begins, but it should have begun months ago, the inflation “genie” is out of the bottle and the FED is going to have a difficult time getting it back in. In today’s article, Ryan McMaken tells us how the FED’s actions are “too little too late”
The Fed’s New “Tightening” Plan Is Too Little, Too Late Read More »
The following article by Robert Murphy looks at the different views of inflation from the various economist’s camps. It also addresses the issue of why early Quantitative Easing (QE) didn’t produce the expected inflation. As I’ve said before the primary reason is that the deflationary forces of a contracting stock and housing market were great enough to counteract the massive money creation by QE.Â
Keynesians and Market Monetarists Didn’t See Inflation Coming Read More »
Why Governments Villainize Assets That Protect Against Inflation
For years, in an effort to drive down prices, gold was attacked as a “barbarous relic” that paid no interest. But it was the only financial asset that wasn’t simultaneously another person’s liability. When an asset is also a liability it’s always possible that the liable party will be unable (or unwilling) to make good on that liability. In that case, the asset becomes worthless. But if you hold physical gold it will always be worth something. The price may fluctuate wildly, but it will never be worth zero. Being a commodity with many real-world uses (in addition to just jewelry), gold also tends to maintain its value during both times of inflation and deflation, plus gold tends to appreciate faster than inflation in times of crisis.
For years it seemed that governments around the world wanted to discourage their citizens from owning gold (while simultaneously hoarding it for their own treasuries). One reason for this seemingly duplicitous behavior is that without an alternative, citizens are forced to spend (and save) using the government-sanctioned currency. If you have the alternative of opting out of depreciating currencies most logical people will do so, once the benefits outweigh the costs.
Another reason governments dislike alternatives to the official currency is that alternatives reveal the true value of the government currency. Governments with perpetually high inflation rates like Argentina often will publish dubious “official” inflation rates in an effort to convince their populace that inflation isn’t as bad as their pocketbook tells them that it is. But with a non-shifting yardstick like gold, their lies become apparent. So they discourage gold ownership and thus leave people foolish enough to listen to their lies, defenseless to the ravages of inflation.
Now with the advent of cryptocurrencies governments have a new villain to demonize. It almost seems that gold has fallen out of favor and crypto has become the new gold. Millennials seem more likely to turn to modern alternatives like bitcoin rather than the antiquated (and time-tested) gold. And it is easy to see why. In recent years gold has remained relatively stable while crypto has skyrocketed.
Can Ruthless Governments Make Crypto Worthless? Read More »
The current financial sanctions against Russia are totally unprecedented. Although sanctions have been used against terrorists they have never been used like this against a Sovereign state. The U.S. and its allies have unleashed all sorts of economic sanctions against Russia as we talked about in our article Economic Warfare Deployed Against Russia. But there is a downside to all these sanctions not only against the Russian nation but also against key players within the country. If the U.S. can sanction foreign individuals what could they do to Citizens if they wanted to?Â
Although mostly symbolic, Russia has retaliated by placing sanctions against several Americans, including Joe and Hunter Biden, Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin as well as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley. Russia’s foreign ministry also announced sanctions against 313 Canadians including Trudeau. Russia’s move prevents those named from entering Russia and freezes any assets the individuals have there, according to the BBC.Â
In addition to putting a massive (but temporary) hurt on Russia, sanctions will also negatively affect many Western Countries, although it won’t be too long before Asian and Middle Eastern countries take up the slack in Russian trade. In today’s article Brendan Brown looks at some of the possible long-term ramifications of these sanctions.~ Tim McMahon, edito
Will Russian Sanctions Open a Can of Worms? Read More »
As Russia defies worldwide opinion and executes one of the largest unprovoked attacks since WWII it is receiving some non-military pushback. Throughout history, there has always been an economic component to warfare. Waging war is an expensive proposition not only in human lives but financially as well. And often the “winner” ends up a loser when it comes time to pay the piper. Bankers have been known to finance both sides of a war and even to finance enemies when a country refuses to pay what they owe. Kings have had to grovel before bankers to finance wars and inflation has financed more wars than can be counted.Â
Economic Warfare Deployed Against Russia Read More »
the Institute for Family Studies published research saying that U.S. birth rates have fallen to all-time lows. And it wasn’t just in the U.S. birth rates were declining worldwide and this was pre-pandemic. So, with all the people staying home with nothing to do during the pandemic there was a massive increase in births right? No, not really. Research from the World Economic forum expects 23 countries to lose half their population by 2100 including Spain, Portugal, and Thailand.
The Surprising Implications Of Declining Global Birth Rates Read More »
There are a variety of new construction methods that are just coming into their own and each has its own advantages and disadvantages but they also have a variety of advantages over conventional “stick-built” houses. One thing that keeps us building the old way is simply that so many builders are familiar with the old methods. As more customers demand these new systems, and more builders use the new systems, they will begin to gain momentum and we will see a greater percentage of non-traditional houses.
Remarkably Quick And Easy Alternative House Building Methods Read More »
 It’s not uncommon to hear the stories of vulnerable people falling for online scams. You’ve also probably had an email telling you that you’ve won the lottery in another country when you’ve never applied. And, of course, there is the legendary Nigerian Prince scam. On the surface, these scams sound amateurish, but these operations are much more complex than you might think with large-scale cooperation. There were 2.2 million reports of fraud in the United States in 2020. The actual number is likely to be much higher, but some people are too embarrassed to admit scammers tricked them. Money remittance operations are particularly at risk because the differences between financial systems between countries leave space for malicious actors to manipulate.
How Blockchain’s Unique Innovations Can Prevent Money Remittance Scams Read More »
