government

Global Tariffs

Is Trump Right About Tariffs?

One of Trump’s big talking points in this election cycle was tariffs. So, what are tariffs and are they a good thing?

Tariffs or “import duties” have existed since the country began in the 1700s. Initially, they were imposed by Britain on imports to the Colonies. One memorable instance is the 1767 Townshend Revenue Act, which eventually resulted in the Boston Tea Party. (But not for the reasons you might think.)…

For many years economists believed, as Janet Yellen says, “if a company wants to export to the United States at below-market prices, we should buy the goods and send a thank-you note” but recently economists have begun rethinking that idea. What if those cheap imports last long enough to destroy all domestic production? Then you are at the mercy of foreign producers and all those domestic jobs moved overseas…

“When considering trade policy, it is important to recognize the difference between using tariffs to tilt the international playing field in favor of American businesses and using them as a negotiating tool…

Tariffs can help level the playing field when currency exchange rates aren’t doing the job they should be. Interestingly, back in 2005, it was none other than Democrat Chuck Schumer who led the charge to impose a 35% tariff on China…

Is Trump Right About Tariffs? Read More »

Canada Economic Crisis

Canada’s Economic Crisis

Canada’s standard of living is on track for its worst decline in 40 years, according to a new study by Canada’s Fraser Institute.

The study compared the three worst periods of decline in Canada in the last 40 years — the 1989 recession, the 2008 global financial crisis, and this post-pandemic era.

They found that unlike the previous recessions, Canada is not recovering this time. Something broke.
One in three Canadians work for the government, making 30% more salary than the average taxpayer. Roughly 10% of Canadians are on welfare.

Canada’s Economic Crisis Read More »

Commercial Real Estate Crisis

How Washington and the Fed Caused the Commercial Real Estate Crisis

Mainstream financial news today is replete with stories about “distress” in the commercial real estate market. But what is the precise nature of this distress, and what implications does it have for those outside of the respective industry or asset class? More importantly, what set of factors contributed to the distress, and what does that say about its potential alleviation?

Broadly, “distress” in the commercial real estate context refers to the inability of a property, or portfolio of properties, to make required payments on the underlying loan (to “service debt,” in industry terms). There is also physical distress—lack of physical upkeep, accumulation of deferred maintenance, etc.—but the inability to service debt is what’s generally referred to as distress in the financial media. I’ll refer to this as financial distress and focus on it as the more relevant driver of immediate and material negative implications for owners and investors.

In the following discussion, I’ll draw on my previous experience in the hospitality and core commercial real estate industry—specifically, my involvement in restructuring, recapitalization, and various other forms of dealing with financially distressed assets in the wake of the 2008–9 crash. I’ll also use my current role as the founder of a private equity real estate company focused on apartments to expound on the current issues in that specific industry. Throughout, I will highlight connections between financial distress and economic management by government at the expense of the free market.

How Washington and the Fed Caused the Commercial Real Estate Crisis Read More »

Maui Wildfire

What Made Maui’s Lahaina Fire So Deadly?

To review, a power company shielded from competition by the state placed electrical infrastructure among highly flammable state-owned grass fields above the historic city of Lahaina, which the government was twice warned were highly susceptible to fire. And once a fire broke out, a combination of defective water infrastructure, terrible communication by government officials, and only one escape route doomed the people of Lahaina to the worst wildfire experienced in this country in over a hundred years.

What Made Maui’s Lahaina Fire So Deadly? Read More »

Easy Money Printing Press

Which is Worse- Easy Money or Public Debt?

Contrary to the popular way of thinking, the threat to the US economy is not the high level of debt but loose monetary policies that undermine the pool of savings and the wealth-generation process. Hence, the fall in the money stock that precedes price deflation and an economic slump is actually triggered by the previous loose monetary policies and not by the liquidation of debt.

Which is Worse- Easy Money or Public Debt? Read More »

Sq FT per person

Housing Is Getting Less Affordable

The average square footage in new single-family houses has been declining since 2015. House sizes tend to fall just during recessionary periods. It happened from 2008 to 2009, from 2001 to 2002, and from 1990 to 1991. But even with strong economic-growth numbers well into 2019, it looks like demand for houses of historically large size may have finally peaked even before the 2020 recession and our current economic malaise. (Square footage in new multifamily construction has also increased.)

Housing Is Getting Less Affordable Read More »

Bitcoin

Can Ruthless Governments Make Crypto Worthless?

Why Governments Villainize Assets That Protect Against Inflation

For years, in an effort to drive down prices, gold was attacked as a “barbarous relic” that paid no interest. But it was the only financial asset that wasn’t simultaneously another person’s liability. When an asset is also a liability it’s always possible that the liable party will be unable (or unwilling) to make good on that liability. In that case, the asset becomes worthless. But if you hold physical gold it will always be worth something. The price may fluctuate wildly, but it will never be worth zero. Being a commodity with many real-world uses (in addition to just jewelry), gold also tends to maintain its value during both times of inflation and deflation, plus gold tends to appreciate faster than inflation in times of crisis.

For years it seemed that governments around the world wanted to discourage their citizens from owning gold (while simultaneously hoarding it for their own treasuries).  One reason for this seemingly duplicitous behavior is that without an alternative, citizens are forced to spend (and save) using the government-sanctioned currency. If you have the alternative of opting out of depreciating currencies most logical people will do so, once the benefits outweigh the costs.

Another reason governments dislike alternatives to the official currency is that alternatives reveal the true value of the government currency. Governments with perpetually high inflation rates like Argentina often will publish dubious “official” inflation rates in an effort to convince their populace that inflation isn’t as bad as their pocketbook tells them that it is. But with a non-shifting yardstick like gold, their lies become apparent. So they discourage gold ownership and thus leave people foolish enough to listen to their lies, defenseless to the ravages of inflation.

Now with the advent of cryptocurrencies governments have a new villain to demonize. It almost seems that gold has fallen out of favor and crypto has become the new gold. Millennials seem more likely to turn to modern alternatives like bitcoin rather than the antiquated (and time-tested) gold. And it is easy to see why. In recent years gold has remained relatively stable while crypto has skyrocketed.

Can Ruthless Governments Make Crypto Worthless? Read More »

Money vs Justice

The More Corrupt the State, the More Numerous the Laws

In his first inaugural address, Thomas Jefferson said the purpose of government is to “restrain men from injuring one another” and “shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement.” Americans were to live under a presumption of freedom. A recent WSJ article said, “It was our boast that in America, unlike in any other country, you could live your life as you saw fit as long as you accorded the same liberty to everyone else.” But all that has changed now.

The More Corrupt the State, the More Numerous the Laws Read More »

You’d Better Hope The U.S. Government Likes What You Do For A Living

It seems like almost daily we are hearing of more and more government encroachment on our freedom and liberty, whether it is the IRS targeting certain groups or NSA evesdropping on private conversations or even passing around “captured” pictures but today we are going to look at the practices of the Department of Justice (DOJ). In this article Leif Simon of “The Offshore Living Letter” takes a look at “Operation Choke Point”.

You’d Better Hope The U.S. Government Likes What You Do For A Living Read More »

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