Just Your Average 300-Year Bear Market?

Long-Term Trend Forecasting is Actually Easier than Short-Term

By Robert Jay

Most people who analyze the present give too little thought to the past, even when previous decades or centuries offer acutely relevant information.   This is particularly true in the financial world, where short attention spans are chronic. A Sept. 9 article in The Economist magazine put it this way:

“The financial world seems to be obsessed with the short term. Fund managers are usually judged on their performance over a three-month period. The television news highlights daily moves in stock markets. Lots of hedge funds think in terms of milliseconds.”

But would you be surprised to learn that long-term stock market trends are generally easier to forecast than short-term ones? EWI’s Robert Prechter says just that, and explains why…stock market prices 1700-2010  Read the rest of this Entry

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