oil

60 Reasons Why Oil Investors Should Hang On

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Inventories will continue to rise, but the momentum is slowing.
The following are some observations as to how we got here and how we’re gonna get out.
9 Reasons Why Oil Has Taken So Long to Bottom:

1. OPEC increased production in 2015 to multiyear highs, principally in Saudi Arabia and Iraq where production between the two added 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to inventories after the no cut stance was adopted.

2. Russian production increased in 2015 to post Soviet highs.

3. Long planned Gulf of Mexico production began coming on in late 2015.

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Will Oil Prices Rebound in 2016?

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In today’s article, we have an interview that Oilprice.com recently did with Carl Larry, Director of Oil and Gas at Frost & Sullivan, a consultancy that conducts research on oil and gas markets, to get his thoughts on the state of oil in 2016. Mr. Larry has spoken at oil conferences around the world as well as been a contributor to CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg and PBS. From APPEC in Singapore to OPEC in Vienna, his views and insight into the oil markets are highly regarded. Experience in the industry has covered financial funds to commercial producers to physical trading shops. His specialties include hedging presentations and training, trading strategy and forecasts, speaking engagements on oil forecasts and macro oil economics, and consulting for C-level management in Oil and Gas.

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Strippers Suffering From Low Oil Prices

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With OPEC breaking down and any kind of coordination among its members on price cuts looking increasingly unlikely, it now appears that oil prices could remain below $50 a barrel for a year or more. As producers confront this unpleasant reality, some will finally start to significantly curtail or even shut down operations. And that is going to severely hurt an all but invisible group; strippers in the United States.

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ISIS, Turkey And Oil – The Bigger Picture: Interview With Pelicourt

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As the terrorist attack in Paris sparks worldwide fear of similar reprisals and a bloody shootout and hostage situation in a five-star Mali hotel exacerbates those concerns, global energy security reels under the pressure of unfathomable geopolitics. In an exclusive interview with Oilprice.com, Robert Bensh—managing director and partner at Pelicourt, a Western-owned oil and gas company navigating tricky conflict zones—discusses:

• The terrorist threat to global energy security
• What ISIS is really after
• The bigger oil picture for ISIS
• Why Iraq can’t cope
• Why Iraqi Kurdistan has disappointed
• Why loose and shifting alliances spell geopolitical disaster
• Whether it’s all as doom-and-gloom as it seems…

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OPEC Self-Destruction Thanks To Saudi Oil Strategy?

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This article shows that the Saudis cannot achieve, or even come close to, their estimated 2014 net export revenue if they prolong their current strategy. This doesn’t mean the Saudis won’t stay the course despite its peril to their own situation. To repeat the two modified Keynes quotes: This doesn’t mean the Saudis won’t stay the course despite its peril to their own situation. To repeat the two modified Keynes quotes at the beginning of this article: “A government can stay irrational longer than it can stay solvent.” “Even in the short term, you’re dead, if you commit suicide.”

“A government can stay irrational longer than it can stay solvent.”

“Even in the short term, you’re dead, if you commit suicide.”

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More “Funny” Data from the Government

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In the past, I documented the overstatements by both the IEA and EIA in 2014 & 2015 in terms of supply, inventory and understatements of demand. Others also noticed these distortions and, whether intentional or not, they exist and they are very large in dollar terms. These distortions, which are affecting price through media hype and/or direct/indirect price manipulation, are quite possibly the largest in financial history.

Putting numbers behind it, with worldwide production running some 95 million barrels per day, and assuming $55 per barrel for oil, the market for crude oil is about $5.2 billion per day. Each $10/Barrel change is worth nearly $1 billion/day or $365 Billion/year for the worldwide crude oil market. Add the worldwide equity market caps of oil and oil related equities and debt you have a scandal that is in the trillions; a number that cannot be ignored.

According to Cornerstone Analytics, who have documented the IEA systematically underestimating demand in 2012-2013 only to revise it higher quarters if not years later, the EIA has created the appearance of an imbalance of supply by some 500 million barrels or $2.5 trillion in the last 5 quarters alone. This has easily swung oil by at least $20/barrel if not more.

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