stock market

Moving Averages: Determining Trend and Avoiding Whipsaws

The moving average is a simple tool designed to help you easily determine the underlying financial trend of a stock, bond, commodity, mutual fund, or any other financial instrument. According to Wikipedia a moving average is “commonly used with time series data to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles. The threshold between short-term […]

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Capital Safety: Is There Such a Thing as “TOO Safe”?

We all know that the stock market has been rising for 3 years. Many economic measures — unemployment, consumer spending and confidence, etc. — also show strong improvement. Yet is that a good reason to stay bullish on stocks? What a silly question, some people might say. But before you give a reply, please take

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Want to Know Who’s Going to Be President? Ask the Stock Market

A recently-published, landmark research paper shows the link between stock market performance and presidential election winners. What’s the biggest influence on the outcome of presidential elections? Many observers would identify the role of campaign spending by super PACs, a candidate’s debate performance, and, of course, the health of the economy (“stupid”). Yet if you want

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Stock Market Is Not Physics Part III

We have already seen that economic performance, earnings and inflation do not necessarily coincide with movements in apparently related financial markets. Is there any evidence that dramatic news events that make headlines, such as terrorist attacks, political events, wars, crises or any such events are causal to stock market movement?

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Did the Past 7 Weeks of Rally Lull You to Sleep?

Here’s why you SHOULDN’T get too comfortable Bear markets are cunning beasts. Don’t get me wrong — we are not in the bear market territory yet. At least, not officially. An “official” bear market begins when the stocks indexes decline 20%. The DJIA’s decline from the May 2, 2011 high to the September 21 low

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A Rising Market Won’t Stop the “Economic Rot” Beneath

Are you prepared for when the “disconnect” between the market and economy reconnects? Suppose you see a lovely house — one with great curb appeal. It has new paint and manicured shrubbery out front. But also suppose that you look more closely. You press your thumb on the window sill and the wood frame crumbles

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