The U.S. Energy Information Administration ( EIA) reported a production decline in the Lower 48—essentially shale production—of 208,000 BOPD. That is a staggeringly enormous number, approximately 10 percent of the estimated global over-supply.
Bloodbath in the Oil Patch Read More »
This article shows that the Saudis cannot achieve, or even come close to, their estimated 2014 net export revenue if they prolong their current strategy. This doesn’t mean the Saudis won’t stay the course despite its peril to their own situation. To repeat the two modified Keynes quotes: This doesn’t mean the Saudis won’t stay the course despite its peril to their own situation. To repeat the two modified Keynes quotes at the beginning of this article: “A government can stay irrational longer than it can stay solvent.” “Even in the short term, you’re dead, if you commit suicide.”
“A government can stay irrational longer than it can stay solvent.”
“Even in the short term, you’re dead, if you commit suicide.”
OPEC Self-Destruction Thanks To Saudi Oil Strategy? Read More »
U.S. Investors are on edge following last week’s and today’s sell-off in stocks around the globe. The carnage impacted equity markets in Asia, Europe, and the U.S.
Markets Crashing, Gold Rising Read More »
In the past, I documented the overstatements by both the IEA and EIA in 2014 & 2015 in terms of supply, inventory and understatements of demand. Others also noticed these distortions and, whether intentional or not, they exist and they are very large in dollar terms. These distortions, which are affecting price through media hype and/or direct/indirect price manipulation, are quite possibly the largest in financial history.
Putting numbers behind it, with worldwide production running some 95 million barrels per day, and assuming $55 per barrel for oil, the market for crude oil is about $5.2 billion per day. Each $10/Barrel change is worth nearly $1 billion/day or $365 Billion/year for the worldwide crude oil market. Add the worldwide equity market caps of oil and oil related equities and debt you have a scandal that is in the trillions; a number that cannot be ignored.
According to Cornerstone Analytics, who have documented the IEA systematically underestimating demand in 2012-2013 only to revise it higher quarters if not years later, the EIA has created the appearance of an imbalance of supply by some 500 million barrels or $2.5 trillion in the last 5 quarters alone. This has easily swung oil by at least $20/barrel if not more.
More “Funny” Data from the Government Read More »
During the late innings of the Internal Combustion Engine age it has become clear that feeding gasoline and diesel to the next billion new cars is not going to be easy, or cheap.
Why Buffett Bet A Billion On Solar Read More »
Oil production in North Dakota has exploded over the last five years, from negligible levels before 2010 to well over a million barrels per day, making North Dakota the second largest oil producing state in the country. But the bust is leaving towns like Williston, North Dakota stretched extremely thin as it tries to deal with the aftermath.
The Dark Side Of The Shale Bust Read More »
In today’s article Jared Dillian compares the 2/10 yield curve to a “Double Black Diamond” ski slope. In other words, it’s wickedly steep! The yield curve he is talking about here is the 10 year treasury yield minus the 2 year treasury yield. This spread measures the steepness of the yield curve. When it is high there is a big difference between the 10 year treasury yield and the 2 year. When it is small investors are not receiving much benefit for taking on longer term risk. Normally the yield curve is positive and longer-term rates are significantly higher than shorter-term rates. In abnormal cases the yield curve becomes “inverted” and short-term rates are actually higher than long-term rates. As Jared tells us, if even a small amount of inflation returns it will create havoc in the long term bond market.
Just When You Thought Bonds Were Safe Read More »
Tesla’s announcement last week about creating a new line of batteries for use by businesses, consumers, and the electrical grid at large is a game-changer for the industry. Currently, when individuals or companies need back-up power, they usually rely on generators. Effective battery storage for large amounts of energy would be a game changer in that it would enable a separation of generation and use of energy produced through clean fuels like solar and wind power.
Is Tesla Changing The Dynamics Of Global Energy? Read More »
The upstream oil and gas industry is not a black hole. There’s no mystery wrapped in an enigma here.
There are a lot of meetings with engineers, chemists and geologists. There’s a constantly evolving learning curve. And then there’s all the regulations and compliance. But all-in-all it’s pretty straight forward, that is, until the media gets a hold of it. That’s when it becomes complicated. It’s as though we are getting reports from the mysteries of the deep ocean or life in the great galaxies beyond. There is so much hyperbole and unsupported guesswork that investors don’t have a chance. So, in a small effort to set the record straight, let’s see if we can’t dispel some of the misinformation.
Top 12 Media Myths On Oil Prices Read More »
Argentina, once a regional energy leader, is now better known for financial busts and bombastic politicians than hydrocarbons prospects. Still, with a resource potential both vast and untapped, the nation has never been far from energy investors’ minds. The question today is just how much Argentina is willing to change and how this plays into a low oil price environment that is already negatively impacting investment elsewhere.
Can Argentina Capitalize On Its Vast Shale Reserves? Read More »
