Investing

NYSE Weekly 4-26-23

Big Move Coming in Stocks

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The stock market appears to be approaching an “inflection point.” Mr. Market is going to have to make up his mind… whether this is going to turn into a bullish or bearish market. At this point, it could still go either way, but the big caveat is that when it moves, the move will probably be dramatic. Looking at the following chart, we can see the two blue short-term support and resistance lines are forming a “pennant” formation. Generally, when that happens, it is like a spring being coiled up as the index gets compressed into the two lines. When it finally breaks free in one direction or the other, it is often explosive.

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Inverted Yield Curve March 2023

Stock Market Outlook – March 24, 2023

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Today Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management looks at the market situation in light of the bank failures. First up is the Inverted Yield Curve. We can see that it originally inverted in July of last year, when short-term interest rates moved higher than long-term rates. From there it moved steadily lower before rebounding earlier this month. So although it is still inverted it is not anywhere near as bad as it was just a few weeks ago.

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NYSE Daily 1-23-2023

Has the Stock Market Turned Positive?

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It has been a long time since there has been any positive news for the stock market. In our January 12th, 2023, NYSE ROC report, we changed from a “Sell Signal” to a “Hold Signal” because of some positive indications in the market. Although the ROC has not yet switched to a “Buy”, we noticed a few positive indicators that could indicate either a bottom has been set or that we are in for a short-term rally. Some may call this “green shoots” in the market.

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NYSE Composite Chart

Half-Way to the Stock Market’s Worst Case Scenario

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On the NYSE weekly chart. we can see that this year so far, the index has fallen from the peak at the long-term resistance line down to the mid-line (as we said it would). So as the headline suggests, we are now halfway to the worst-case scenario, i.e., all the way down to the long-term support line. Whether it gets that bad or not remains to be seen.

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Global Trade

How Is Technology Affecting Global Trading Markets

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Being able to enter and execute stock trades on a smartphone application is something we can easily take for granted these days, which is amazing simply because this was not even remotely possible a couple of decades ago. Technology has always been at the forefront of innovation in the financial markets; we can’t forget that the stock market we know today as the Nasdaq made its debut in 1971 as the first electronic trading platform open to ordinary investors. Prior to that, all transactions had to be cleared with a personal broker by means of a telephone call. And individual transaction fees were much higher. Prior to May 1, 1975 brokerage commissions were regulated by the government and actually kept artificially high. In those days, buying 100 shares of a blue-chip company could cost $100 or more in commissions.

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Robinhood Statistics

Online Stockbrokers Going Public

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2020 was a big year for the online stock broker industry and 2021 may be an even bigger year. The initial public offerings of eToro and Robinhood will leave both companies flush with plenty of capital to capitalize on that growth. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a surge in demand for online stock brokers. Stock markets worldwide were in freefall during the early stages of the pandemic, and many new investors recognized an opportunity to buy shares of beaten-up companies via online brokerage companies. This was truly a global trend. While Robinhood dominated new account creations in the US and media headlines worldwide, other stockbrokers were competitive outside the USA.

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Asset Allocation

Aspiring Investors: Getting Started in the Stock Market

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The fear of a missed opportunity, if the stock market does indeed continue to rise throughout 2021,  is often a powerful motivator to the new investor. Although starting out is relatively easy, navigating the various pitfalls of investment can be an extremely intricate challenge without the right knowledge to back you up. In his classic book “Influence” Robert Cialdini lists “fear of loss” as an extremely powerful motivator, so we must be cautious in the face of the temptation to jump in with “both feet” without knowing what we are getting ourselves into.  Here are some tips for anyone wishing to act upon their interest in the stock market. 

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